This weekend when we face Wake Forest, we will be matching up with the Number one Team in College Baseball and there is a reason they are number one, outstanding pitching. Will we be a clear underdog? Yes. If there is a team in College Baseball that is capable of beating Wake, it is Alabama. Wake is Number One in Pitching and it is not even close. Alabama is number Seven in team pitching and we have been climbing in the rankings every week in the last five. At one point before LSU we were not in the top Twenty-five. In Hitting we are close to Wake. All in all there is not much disparity between Wake's season and our last Five weeks.
1. Wake Forest features three of the top pitchers in College Baseball in Rhett Lowder, ERA 1.77 and Josh Hartle ERA 2.59 and when they have to go to the game three pitcher they have Seth Keener, ERA 2.23. While Alabama has no one in/or near that class of pitcher, Sean Sullivan is a good fourth pitcher for Wake, but he has a meager ERA of 2.61, compared to the other Wake pitchers. Alabama's team ERA is seventh in the country at 3.96, compared to Wake's national best of an unheard of 2.78. Just to put things in perspective, UCheat is Second in the Country in ERA at 3.6. If Pitching is 90% of the game, our pitching staff should be able to hold their own against Wake. If we get to game three, Mac has been sensational the last month of the season, so the key may be to figure a way to win games one or two and then we are even.
2. When Wake is at the plate they average an impressive .308 hitting average, compared to Alabama's modest .295 average. Wake Forest has scored 556 runs this season compared to Alabama's 479 and the power number has Wake hitting 117 home runs compared to Alabama's 105.
The recipe for winning the series is to beat either Lowder or Hartle and make Sullivan use up the pitch count in the first two games, eating up pitches. If we can do that, I think we have a big advantage in Game three as Keener has not pitched a lot of innings this year. Once we get past the top four pitchers for Wake, they have no one else in the top 200 in the country. (Sorry, I have to find sunshine somewhere, even when the clouds are dark) Just remember that Wake is beatable and they did lose three games at home this year. This series will be decided by pitching and clutch hitting. Assuming we can get 30 runners on base, we cannot leave them stranded. Wake reminds me of some of the good Vandy baseball teams with that great pitching.
- Runs scored per game: Wake Forest, 9.3; Alabama, 7.7
- RPI Wake Forest 1.; Alabama 10
- Hits allowed: Wake Forest 6.57, Alabama 7.59
- ERA: Wake Forest, 2.78; Alabama, 3.96
- Home Runs; Wake Forest 117; Alabama 105
- Team Batting Average: Wake Forest .308; Alabama .295
- Fielding percentage: Wake Forest, .979; Alabama, .978
- Strength of schedule: Wake Forest, No. 35; Alabama, No. 13
Okay for the good news. Our statistics for the last 18 games under Coach Jackson are very comparable to Wake's statistics in all categories. The Atlanta Braves, with Glavine, Maddux and Schmoltz only won one World Series. Can we win? The answer is a clear yes; however we will have to play our best baseball, against the best team in College Baseball. Remember that we once played the best team in College Basketball in the early 2000's and we beat that Stanford team, followed by beating the Defending National Champion Syracuse team.
Once we get to game three, I think we will be the favorite to get to Omaha.