Six months removed from the heroic comeback in the national championship game, the image of Tua Tagovailoa’s game-winning touchdown to DeVonta Smith is still fresh on Alabama fans minds. Apparently, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas haven’t forgotten either.
Despite not yet nailing down the starting quarterback position at Alabama, Tagovailoa received the second-best odds to win this season’s Heisman Trophy in the latest update from Las Vegas Superbook last week. Oddsmakers currently have the sophomore quarterback at 8/1 odds to hoist the trophy, trailing only Stanford running back Bryce Love at 6/1.
Tagovailoa shares 8/1 odds with Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor. Running back Damien Harris is the only other Alabama player with decent odds at 18/1. He’s joined by a host of quarterbacks, including Georgia’s Jake Fromm, Penn State's Trace McSorley, Oregon’s Justin Herbert and Arizona’s Kahlil Tate.
While Alabama’s only two previous Heisman winners — Mark Ingram (2009) and Derrick Henry (2015) — were running backs, the award typically goes to a quarterback. In fact, Henry is the only non-quarterback to win the award in the past eight years, breaking a string of five straight passers. Harris’ case isn’t helped by the fact that he will share a loaded backfield that includes Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs and Brian Robinson.
In order to win the Heisman, Damien Harris will need more than the 1,000 yards he rushed for last season. He’ll also likely need more than the 135 carries he was afforded. Neither is impossible, but the odds don’t look to be in the senior back’s favor.
There’s no doubt Alabama’s best bet comes in Tagovailoa. Unlike other Heisman favorites, the sophomore still has to fight for his starting spot. However, the same thing that seems to be propelling Tagovailoa in Alabama’s quarterback competition is what gives him the edge over the nation’s other top players: momentum.
While it won’t count for this season, Tagovailoa has already had a “Heisman moment” of sorts. Tagovailoa’s 41-yard laser to Smith is bound to be revisited throughout the year and at the very least has already made the Hawaiian native a household name.
On top of being the highest favored quarterback, Tagovailoa is playing on this year’s national title favorite. Las Vegas Superbook lists Alabama at 9/5 odds to lift an 18th national title this season, higher than any other team. We’ve already discussed how favorable Alabama’s regular-season schedule can be. If Tagovailoa can navigate the Crimson Tide through an unscathed run to Atlanta, he could set up the ultimate Heisman spotlight with a rematch against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
Last year, Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield took home the Heisman after completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 4,627 yards and 43 touchdowns with six interceptions while adding another 311 yards and five more scores on the ground. Assuming Tagovailoa leads Alabama to the national championship game and plays in 15 games, he would need to average roughly 308 passing yards and three touchdowns per game to match those numbers. That’s a lot to ask from the sophomore. However, given that Tagovailoa managed to pass for 636 yards and 11 touchdowns over eight games of mop-up duty and a magical second-half comeback, it’s not as inconceivable as it seems.
