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21 for 21: Predicting Will Anderson's sacks total this season

Tony_Tsoukalas

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Staff
Feb 5, 2014
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Alabama will look to repeat as national champions this year as it aims to add a 19th title to its trophy case. The Crimson Tide opens its season on Sept. 4 against Miami inside Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. To help pass the time until then, BamaInsider is delving into 21 topics and questions concerning the 2021 season.

Today, we continue our series by asking how many sacks Will Anderson Jr. will pile up this season.


Derrick Thomas holds perhaps the most untouchable mark in Alabama history. The late Crimson Tide linebacker tallied an NCAA record 27 sacks during the 1988 season, a stat that seems out of reach to even the most feared pass rushers of today’s game.

Alabama has one of those on this year’s defense in Will Anderson Jr., who’s drawn comparisons to Thomas in his early college career. Anderson earned the Shaun Alexander-FWAA National Freshman Player of the Year Award last season, leading the nation’s freshmen with seven sacks while also tallying 52 tackles including 10.5 stops for a loss.

Despite his success, Anderson didn’t record his first sack until the eighth game of the season. From there, the five-star outside linebacker brought down seven quarterbacks in the span of four weeks.

For perspective, if Anderson was able to replicate the production of that stint over a full regular season, he would have 21 sacks by the time the Tide enters postseason play this year. Maintaining that average over a 15-game slate would have him knocking at the door of Thomas’ record.

While it’s interesting to imagine such a feat, even the most optimistic Alabama fans would be hard pressed to predict Anderson to provide that type of elite consistency throughout the season. Former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs came close to reaching Thomas’ mark in 2002 when he recorded 24 sacks for Arizona State. No one in the past 15 seasons has even reached the 20-sack mark. Defensive lineman Jonathan Allen had the highest single-season sacks total in the Nick Saban era, tallying 12 in 2015.

Still, assuming Anderson remains healthy and continues to progress up to his five-star potential, it’s safe to assume he’ll be bringing down his fair share of passers this season. How many sacks should we expect from the 6-foot-4, 235-pound sophomore? Here are a few things to consider.

Anderson actually has some room to improve as a pass-rusher

As lethal as Anderson was at times last season, his slow start saw him earn a 73.2 pass-rushing grade from Pro Football Focus, a mark that didn’t rank in the top 50 among edge rushers with at least 200 defensive snaps. For perspective, Chase Young, who tallied 16.5 sacks over 12 games for Ohio State in 2019, registered an NCAA-best 96.5 pass-rushing grade that season.

This spring, Anderson spoke about his improvements throughout his freshman year, attributing his late-season surge to an increase in confidence.

“My confidence clicked for me,” he said. “Me being confident in myself, knowing — I always knew my job, but I was always trying to play it safe a little bit. And I think when I just took the game for what it was and grew into myself and said, ‘OK, this is your job, now let’s play football, let’s be Will Anderson.’ My confidence grew, and I think that’s what helped me midway through the end of the season.”

As Saban routinely points out, sacks aren’t always the best representation of effectiveness when it comes to rushing the passer. However, it’s somewhat safe to assume that if Anderson’s pass-rushing grade improves this season his sacks total will follow.

He’ll have plenty of help

Alabama loses its sacks leader from last season in defensive tackle Christian Barmore but will still bring back plenty of talented pass rushers to keep opposing offenses honest against Anderson.

Christopher Allen returns for his redshirt senior season after leading the SEC with 13 tackles for a loss to go with six sacks. The Tide will also have a pair of young five-star edge rushers in Christopher Braswell and Dallas Turner as well as other potential breakout stars in Drew Sanders and Quandarius Robinson waiting in the wings. While that competition could theoretically eat up some of his potential sacks, it should also prevent double teams.

Along with the slew of fellow pass rushers, Anderson will also be teamed up with more experience both on the defensive line and in the secondary as the Tide loses just one starter from each unit. That should not only open up lanes for Anderson but also buy him more time to get to opposing quarterbacks.

For better or worse, he’ll be facing lesser competition

It’s worth noting that Anderson’s slow start last year came as he was thrown into the fire of SEC play from Game 1 due to the all-conference regular season as a result of COVID-19. This year, Alabama returns to a more traditional slate of games, opening up against Miami while also facing three other non-conference opponents in Mercer, Southern Miss and New Mexico State.

It’s a bit of a toss up whether such games will help Anderson’s sacks total. On one hand, he’ll have the opportunity to feast on inferior offensive lines. On the other, possible blowouts in Alabama’s lesser matchups could reduce his time on the field.

During Alabama’s last traditional schedule in 2019, Anfernee Jennings recorded 3.5 of his team-high eight sacks against New Mexico State, Southern Miss and Western Carolina. On the flip side, only one of Isaiah Buggs’ team-high 9.5 sacks in 2018 came against Group of 5 competition.

Prediction: Despite his talent and the potential of Alabama’s defense, it’s still far-fetched to believe Anderson will get anywhere close to Thomas’ record. That being said, a 13-sack season would see him become the most productive pass-rusher in the Saban era. That’s the prediction here.
 
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