Alabama 37 Tennessee 30
The Vol’s have followed the same pattern nearly every gm, getting down big early, then play a great 2H to win. LW they lost in 2OT at A&M despite 7 TO’s & finishing -4. They had almost 700 yds of OFF at College Station & 2 wks ago took on 1 of the best D’s in the country & put up 498 yds vs UF. They’re banged up but are getting nearly 2 td’s here. Bama’s D scored 2 more td’s LW, but I was alarmed by the 473 yds & 25 FD’s they all’d vs the Hogs. While they won by 19, they benefited from a 100+ yd IR td, which was a 14 pt swing. Earlier TY they all’d 527 yds vs Ole Miss & escaped w/a 5 pt road win. LY on the road, a much younger Vols tm almost upset Bama w/the Tide needing a td w/2:24 left to escape w/a 5 pt win. I feel the Tide is the best tm in the country & will win, but will take the nearly 2 td’s w/a Tenn tm that is stronger than LY’s squad & has QB Dobbs ply’g the best FB of his
career.
Alabama 31 TENNESSEE 24
We know you’re not too happy that last week we went against the No. 1 Crimson Tide and came up short. However, let’s talk linevalue here. Last year we had a top play of the week on these pages with Tennessee (+15) at Alabama and a lot of you then questioned the pick. Well the Volunteers nearly pulled the outright upset as Bama needed a late TD to get the outright win. Now, let’s ask you a couple of questions; is Alabama better or worse than last year’s team? How about we say they’re just as good as last year’s team that won the National Title. Now let’s talk Tennessee, are the Volunteers better or worse than last year’s edition? We actually think they’re better and last week they had 7 TO’s and still almost won outright at Texas A&M in a tough spot. Now when you factor in a minimum of a 8-point line swing from home/away (game going from Tuscaloosa to Knoxville), how in the heck is Alabama laying 13 here? Also note the summer betting markets had Bama slightly favored. Hate to do this again to you guys, but we’re fading the Crimson Tide this week.
Alabama 32 - TENNESSEE 16
—UT nearly overcame another DD deficit in its 45-38 double-OT loss at A&M. But still inclined to lay around 10 pts. with Final Four hopeful Bama, which has won by DDs in 34 of it last 39 victories. Tide’s poised dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts (64%, 9 TDP, 2 ints.; 296 YR & 5 TDs) outduels Vol counterpart Josh Dobbs, hard-pressed to find his comfort zone vs. hard-charging Bama “D” (15.8 ppg; 23 sacks), anchored by ball-hawking soph CB Minkah Fitzpatrick (3 picks vs. Arkansas). Mastermind Nick Saban nabs 10th straight win in series.
ALABAMA over *TENNESSEE by 14
We tend to like home dogs when they have the better defense. Tennessee’s defense has been giving up a lot of first-half points that create deficits that the offense has been able to overcome in second halves. The Vols have allowed 26.7 ppg, Alabama 15.8 ppg. In three conference games, the Tide has allowed 26.3 ppg, the Vols 34.7 ppg. So, although Alabama games have see-sawed somewhat themselves, we’ll continue to expect the defensive and/or special teams TDs that Alabama has regularly produced. When they don’t come, the Tide won’t cover. But they keep coming, don’t they? ALABAMA, 34-20
Alabama over TENNESSEE by 16
We’ve haven’t checked in with our SEC scout much this season. He’s getting on in years and we can’t really interrupt his nap schedule as often as we’d like. But like the boss has been known to say, “You only bring out the big guns when you need ‘em.” And THIS happens to be one of those times. That’s why Jaybird The Bulldog is on the line right now as we break down this afternoon’s monster SEC matchup. “Hold on a minute,” he says. “I’ve got a question for Butch Jones, the Tennessee coach, about the end of the Texas A&M game. Why not go for the 2-point conversion? Why not go for the WIN from the 1-yard line – against an A&M defense that was back on its heels – rather than giving the Aggies a reprieve by going to overtime? Look, I saw Nick Saban with his Lou Holtz ‘WTF’ expression after last week’s Arkansas game, acting like he’d just lost the game by 19 points instead of winning by 19. I can tell you this: Saban would have GONE for the 2 points against A&M... end of story.” If that’s an endorsement of the Crimson Tide in today’s barnburner, we completely agree. Our database joins in, pointing out Alabama’s 6-1 ATS series record in its last seven trips to Rocky Top, including 4-0 SUATS the last four visits – winning by an average margin of 24 PPG! We’re not stepping in front of that with a Volunteer team that’s posted a money-burning 3-9-1 ATS mark of late as home underdogs of 6 or more points. While quality home dogs of this ilk are normally our cup of tea, we’re coffee drinkers today with last week’s overtime loss at A&M setting up this ‘Bubble Burst’ FLAT CAT fade
Alabama 38 - TENNESSEE 24 - (3:30)
-- Ten straight wins over ranked foes for Tide, & 8 straight games with a non "O" TD (2 LW). Visitor 12-3 ATS in 'Bama tilts. Vols LW: 29 FDs, 684 yds (behind Dobbs & Kamara), but an OT loss. Try Seven TOs. Superb comebacks, week-after-week, but this foe on other level.
Alabama over Tennessee* by 22
The grit that Tennessee has shown over the past three weeks has been remarkable, a tribute to Butch Jones for instilling that kind of energy and belief, but in particular to Joshua Dobbs on the field, and both his physical stamina and poise in keeping the offense flowing under stressful settings. But there are also realities that come into play this week – the energy spent across that trio of draining SEC outings does accumulate, and that is an awful issue to face when the deep Crimson Tide come to town. A depleted Tennessee defense was on the field for 84 plays at College Station, and has faced 95 rush attempts the last two weeks, allowing 536 yards on them, and there will not be much that Jones can do to recharge those batteries, especially with the depth chart already being taxed. That opens the door for the Alabama offensive balance (over 250 yards both running and passing at Arkansas) to dictate this flow, and gradually pull away. ALABAMA 35-13.
Alabama by 7 over TENNESSEE
- As it should be, this series is back to being ply’d the 3rd Sat in Oct. 2Y ago Bama led 27-0 2Q & QB Dobbs came off the bench & has remained UT’s st’r. LY UT led 14-13 w/5:49 left but all’d a 71/8pl drive & Bama won 19-14 (-15). Bama is 9-0 SU winning by an avg of 21 ppg. The ‘Vampire Vol’s’ are off their 1st loss, 45-38 (+7) 2OT at A&M. Despite missing several key str’s, UT had 684-592 yd & 29-21 FD edges but also 7 TO’s. Down 7 late 4Q, it appeared A&M wrapped it up on a long td run, but DB Foreman forced a fmbl & UT scored, sending it to OT, but couldn’t keep the magic going. RB Hurd DNP (conc, CS), but Kamara had 127 (7.1) & 161 (20.1) rec. UT is #17 in the FBS on OFF avg 116 ypg more than their foes allow & LW’s ttl was the most A&M has given up in schl hist. Bama enters off a 49-30 (-14) win at Ark. They only had a 517-473 yd edge & were outFD’d 25-16, but got IR & FR td’s. This gm will be won in the trenches as Bama is all’g 70 (2.3) rush ypg & their D is #6 in the FBS all’g 145 ypg less than their opp’s avg, while UT avg 282 (5.5) rush ypg. Bama avg 237 (5.7) rush ypg & UT is all’g 183 (4.5) & just all’d a ssn high 383 (7.1). HC Jones is 4-1 as a HD while HC Saban is 4-1 as an AF.
The Vol’s have followed the same pattern nearly every gm, getting down big early, then play a great 2H to win. LW they lost in 2OT at A&M despite 7 TO’s & finishing -4. They had almost 700 yds of OFF at College Station & 2 wks ago took on 1 of the best D’s in the country & put up 498 yds vs UF. They’re banged up but are getting nearly 2 td’s here. Bama’s D scored 2 more td’s LW, but I was alarmed by the 473 yds & 25 FD’s they all’d vs the Hogs. While they won by 19, they benefited from a 100+ yd IR td, which was a 14 pt swing. Earlier TY they all’d 527 yds vs Ole Miss & escaped w/a 5 pt road win. LY on the road, a much younger Vols tm almost upset Bama w/the Tide needing a td w/2:24 left to escape w/a 5 pt win. I feel the Tide is the best tm in the country & will win, but will take the nearly 2 td’s w/a Tenn tm that is stronger than LY’s squad & has QB Dobbs ply’g the best FB of his
career.
Alabama 31 TENNESSEE 24
We know you’re not too happy that last week we went against the No. 1 Crimson Tide and came up short. However, let’s talk linevalue here. Last year we had a top play of the week on these pages with Tennessee (+15) at Alabama and a lot of you then questioned the pick. Well the Volunteers nearly pulled the outright upset as Bama needed a late TD to get the outright win. Now, let’s ask you a couple of questions; is Alabama better or worse than last year’s team? How about we say they’re just as good as last year’s team that won the National Title. Now let’s talk Tennessee, are the Volunteers better or worse than last year’s edition? We actually think they’re better and last week they had 7 TO’s and still almost won outright at Texas A&M in a tough spot. Now when you factor in a minimum of a 8-point line swing from home/away (game going from Tuscaloosa to Knoxville), how in the heck is Alabama laying 13 here? Also note the summer betting markets had Bama slightly favored. Hate to do this again to you guys, but we’re fading the Crimson Tide this week.
Alabama 32 - TENNESSEE 16
—UT nearly overcame another DD deficit in its 45-38 double-OT loss at A&M. But still inclined to lay around 10 pts. with Final Four hopeful Bama, which has won by DDs in 34 of it last 39 victories. Tide’s poised dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts (64%, 9 TDP, 2 ints.; 296 YR & 5 TDs) outduels Vol counterpart Josh Dobbs, hard-pressed to find his comfort zone vs. hard-charging Bama “D” (15.8 ppg; 23 sacks), anchored by ball-hawking soph CB Minkah Fitzpatrick (3 picks vs. Arkansas). Mastermind Nick Saban nabs 10th straight win in series.
ALABAMA over *TENNESSEE by 14
We tend to like home dogs when they have the better defense. Tennessee’s defense has been giving up a lot of first-half points that create deficits that the offense has been able to overcome in second halves. The Vols have allowed 26.7 ppg, Alabama 15.8 ppg. In three conference games, the Tide has allowed 26.3 ppg, the Vols 34.7 ppg. So, although Alabama games have see-sawed somewhat themselves, we’ll continue to expect the defensive and/or special teams TDs that Alabama has regularly produced. When they don’t come, the Tide won’t cover. But they keep coming, don’t they? ALABAMA, 34-20
Alabama over TENNESSEE by 16
We’ve haven’t checked in with our SEC scout much this season. He’s getting on in years and we can’t really interrupt his nap schedule as often as we’d like. But like the boss has been known to say, “You only bring out the big guns when you need ‘em.” And THIS happens to be one of those times. That’s why Jaybird The Bulldog is on the line right now as we break down this afternoon’s monster SEC matchup. “Hold on a minute,” he says. “I’ve got a question for Butch Jones, the Tennessee coach, about the end of the Texas A&M game. Why not go for the 2-point conversion? Why not go for the WIN from the 1-yard line – against an A&M defense that was back on its heels – rather than giving the Aggies a reprieve by going to overtime? Look, I saw Nick Saban with his Lou Holtz ‘WTF’ expression after last week’s Arkansas game, acting like he’d just lost the game by 19 points instead of winning by 19. I can tell you this: Saban would have GONE for the 2 points against A&M... end of story.” If that’s an endorsement of the Crimson Tide in today’s barnburner, we completely agree. Our database joins in, pointing out Alabama’s 6-1 ATS series record in its last seven trips to Rocky Top, including 4-0 SUATS the last four visits – winning by an average margin of 24 PPG! We’re not stepping in front of that with a Volunteer team that’s posted a money-burning 3-9-1 ATS mark of late as home underdogs of 6 or more points. While quality home dogs of this ilk are normally our cup of tea, we’re coffee drinkers today with last week’s overtime loss at A&M setting up this ‘Bubble Burst’ FLAT CAT fade
Alabama 38 - TENNESSEE 24 - (3:30)
-- Ten straight wins over ranked foes for Tide, & 8 straight games with a non "O" TD (2 LW). Visitor 12-3 ATS in 'Bama tilts. Vols LW: 29 FDs, 684 yds (behind Dobbs & Kamara), but an OT loss. Try Seven TOs. Superb comebacks, week-after-week, but this foe on other level.
Alabama over Tennessee* by 22
The grit that Tennessee has shown over the past three weeks has been remarkable, a tribute to Butch Jones for instilling that kind of energy and belief, but in particular to Joshua Dobbs on the field, and both his physical stamina and poise in keeping the offense flowing under stressful settings. But there are also realities that come into play this week – the energy spent across that trio of draining SEC outings does accumulate, and that is an awful issue to face when the deep Crimson Tide come to town. A depleted Tennessee defense was on the field for 84 plays at College Station, and has faced 95 rush attempts the last two weeks, allowing 536 yards on them, and there will not be much that Jones can do to recharge those batteries, especially with the depth chart already being taxed. That opens the door for the Alabama offensive balance (over 250 yards both running and passing at Arkansas) to dictate this flow, and gradually pull away. ALABAMA 35-13.
Alabama by 7 over TENNESSEE
- As it should be, this series is back to being ply’d the 3rd Sat in Oct. 2Y ago Bama led 27-0 2Q & QB Dobbs came off the bench & has remained UT’s st’r. LY UT led 14-13 w/5:49 left but all’d a 71/8pl drive & Bama won 19-14 (-15). Bama is 9-0 SU winning by an avg of 21 ppg. The ‘Vampire Vol’s’ are off their 1st loss, 45-38 (+7) 2OT at A&M. Despite missing several key str’s, UT had 684-592 yd & 29-21 FD edges but also 7 TO’s. Down 7 late 4Q, it appeared A&M wrapped it up on a long td run, but DB Foreman forced a fmbl & UT scored, sending it to OT, but couldn’t keep the magic going. RB Hurd DNP (conc, CS), but Kamara had 127 (7.1) & 161 (20.1) rec. UT is #17 in the FBS on OFF avg 116 ypg more than their foes allow & LW’s ttl was the most A&M has given up in schl hist. Bama enters off a 49-30 (-14) win at Ark. They only had a 517-473 yd edge & were outFD’d 25-16, but got IR & FR td’s. This gm will be won in the trenches as Bama is all’g 70 (2.3) rush ypg & their D is #6 in the FBS all’g 145 ypg less than their opp’s avg, while UT avg 282 (5.5) rush ypg. Bama avg 237 (5.7) rush ypg & UT is all’g 183 (4.5) & just all’d a ssn high 383 (7.1). HC Jones is 4-1 as a HD while HC Saban is 4-1 as an AF.
