Can Alabama make the playoff? Here's what the CFP rankings taught us
Damaged but not destroyed. That’s how Alabama’s playoff hopes stand following its loss to Oklahoma over the
Damaged but not destroyed. That’s how Alabama’s playoff hopes stand following its loss to Oklahoma over the weekend.
The Crimson Tide slid six spots to No. 13 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Now Alabama (8-3, 4-3 in the SEC) will need a bit of help if it wants to punch its ticket to this year’s 12-team playoff. Still, with two weeks remaining until the committee makes its final selections, there’s enough time for chaos to crack the door open for the Tide.
Here’s what the latest rankings tell us about Alabama’s playoff hopes and what the Tide will need to root for moving forward.
Not every upset will matter
In reality, Alabama is two spots away from the playoff picture, as it would be jumped by the fifth-highest conference champion for the 12th seed. That means the Tide will need multiple results to go its way in order to climb to safetyAlabama doesn’t just need upsets, it needs the right upsets. For example, a win for No. 15 South Carolina over No. 12 Clemson this weekend would allow the Tide to pass the Tigers. However, there’s no guarantee that the Gamecocks wouldn’t then pass Alabama, even with the Tide’s head-to-head victory earlier this season.
The Tide will actually be rooting against an upset in the Lone Star Showdown between No. 3 Texas and No. 20 Texas A&M. With three losses, Alabama wouldn’t be able to pass the Longhorns if they fell to 10-2. Meanwhile, the Aggies could still steal a playoff spot by going on to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Thus, it’s better for Alabama if Texas takes care of business and eliminates Texas A&M as a possible threat.
Alabama will need some major chaos
Last weekend, four ranked teams lost to unranked teams. Alabama’s going to need a repeat of that chaos this weekend to truly make a playoff push. Fortunately for the Tide, there are plenty of rivalry games that could produce a few surprise results. Here are a few to monitor.No. 5 Notre Dame (-7.5) at Southern California
It has been a tough season for Southern California, but the Trojans are arguably the best five-loss team in the nation. All five of USC’s defeats have come by seven or fewer points, including a three-point loss to No. 4 Penn State. The Trojans have a talented roster, and this will be a cross-country trip for a Notre Dame team that hasn’t played in a true road game since a Sept. 14 win at Purdue.
No. 6 Miami (-11) at Syracuse
Syracuse is a tough place to play, and barring a blowout loss to Pittsburgh, the Orange has been in every game it has played this season. Meanwhile, Miami already suffered an upset at Georgia Tech earlier this month and has been prone to playing down to its competition this season. A Hurricanes loss would prevent them from playing in the ACC Championship Game and likely drop them below Alabama in the rankings.
No. 8 Tennessee (-10.5) at Vanderbilt
After playing the villain role in Week 6, could Diego Pavia end up saving Alabama’s playoff hopes? Lately, Vanderbilt hasn’t looked like the same team that upset the Tide and went toe-to-toe with Texas. However, if the Commodores have proven they have what it takes to grind out tough wins. If Vanderbilt can catch Tennessee sleepwalking early during an 11 a.m. kickoff, it could end up being a long afternoon for the Volunteers.
The committee already had Alabama ahead of Tennessee with equal losses despite the Volunteers’ head-to-head win over the Tide. Chances are, Alabama would be able to jump Tennessee again if the Vols fall victim to Vanderbilt.
California at No. 9 SMU (-13.5)
This is the most far-fetched upset of the bunch. SMU is rolling, and California will be making the long trip to Dallas for the matchup. Still, the Bears won on the road at Auburn earlier this season and have come out on top in three of their last four games.
Even with a loss, SMU will play in the ACC Championship Game. Alabama would need the Mustangs to lose again to prevent them from stealing a playoff spot.
Will head-to-head matter?
Head-to-head could be a tricky subject for Alabama in a couple of weeks.The Tide will hope the committee ignores head-to-head matchups in the event Alabama and Tennessee both finish the season 9-3. On the other hand, Alabama’s win over South Carolina might be the only thing stopping the Gamecocks from passing the Tide if they too finish with a 9-3 record.
It’s difficult to read how the committee would react in either situation. Head-to-head still seems to matter to some extent. It’s likely why Ole Miss remained above South Carolina despite suffering an upset loss to unranked Florida over the weekend.
The Rebels beat the Gamecocks 27-3 in South Carolina earlier this season. That’s a far more convincing win than Alabama’s 27-25 victory over South Carolina in Tuscaloosa last month. With the committee possibly splitting hairs, style points could come into the equation.
There’s even a possibility that Georgia and South Carolina could both end up with three losses and make the playoff ahead of Alabama despite losing to the Tide.
