My mid-season thoughts on Alabama basketball and Outlook

[Jordan Harper]

Alabama has had a wild ride so far this season with extremely high highs and basement level lows. Currently they sit at 11-4 (2-1) and rank 22nd in the NET. They are 7-3 in Q1 and Q2 games combined with is elite level in the country. All the peripherals look great on paper, but let's talk about the team and how they're playing currently.

Alabama defeated a shorthanded Tennessee team at home, went on the road and beat a solid Florida on the road, then laid an egg on the road to bottom 3 Missouri. Look, road games are tough no matter who you play, but for a team of this standard shouldn't lose games the way they did. Every elite team drops games they shouldn't, but to drop it while lacking effort and defense is inexcusable and that is what Coach Oats has said. They will score 75+ points most games, but it doesn't matter if you give up over 80 especially to subpar offensive teams.

The personnel is there to be a top level team in the country, but they all have to bring the effort and intensity consistently, and someone is going to have to step up as a leader. Herb Jones is sorely missed based on a lot of the intangible he brought that had nothing to do with athletic ability. He always made sure everyone played hard and was doing the right thing and led by example. The upperclassmen have to pick up that slack. The freshmen have been underwhelming for the most part this season, but that is to be expected for most guys in their first year, but these guys are relied upon a lot. JD Davison and Charles Bediako play 20+ minutes and are important role players, but they have massive flaws right now that teams are exploiting.

Future outlook of this team:

I think this team will still finish top 4 in the SEC and become a top 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Obviously not what people expected, but still not bad. We would've taken this every year for the past 10-15 years, but the standards have changed with Oats. Alabama has a tough stretch facing Auburn, State, and LSU coming up where they need to show growth and maturity. If they can do that, then I believe this team will take off once they start playing together and with effort night in and night out. The Missouri loss sucked, but still lots to look forward to.

 

[Codie B]

I can not speak for others expectations, but I said earlier in the year mine were:
1) With Primo and Burnett - a 1 or 2 seed.
2) With just one of Primo or Burnett - a top 4, mostly likely a 3 or 4 seed, NCAA tournament seed.
3) With neither, a 6 or 7 seed.
My thoughts and expectations have not changed much, but I am very concerned with our recent play.

 

[StablerCountry]

This Bama team finds itself and play week end and week out at the level they played Gonzaga and Florida they can make a deep run in the tourney. If they show up and play like they did against Missouri. Not a good run.

They like Jekyl and Hyde. Missing leadership or something.

 

[Sassy12]

Not looking forward to tonight’s game. You can see promise, but there is no consistent effort. From the seats I worry about effort, careless errors and togetherness. I agree 100% that we miss last years’ seniors. What Jones, Petty and Reese gave us was invaluable, maturity. You could tell each player cared about winning. I am not so sure about this group.

 

[pfaud001]

I am not giving up on this team. It starts with tonight and beating the barn. We are beating them by 10 tonight. Just my 2 cents.

 

[jtr4dad]

Not looking forward to tonight’s game. You can see promise, but there is no consistent effort. From the seats I worry about effort, careless errors and togetherness. I agree 100% that we miss last years’ seniors. What Jones, Petty and Reese gave us was invaluable, maturity. You could tell each player cared about winning. I am not so sure about this group.

To paraphrase the SEC motto “it just meant more” to those guys. I don’t see that with this year’s team. My concern is that it’s getting too late in the season for a leader to emerge now. If we had one he would’ve surfaced by now.

 

[cola68]

I am not giving up on this team. It starts with tonight and beating the barn. We are beating them by 10 tonight. Just my 2 cents.

I’d be shocked .

Vegas has Bama -3 tonight.

I think Bama loses by 5-10 points tonight.

Auburn’s length and size will bother this team around the rim and with offensive rebounds unfortunately.

 

[pfaud001]

I’d be shocked .

Vegas has Bama -3 tonight.

I think Bama loses by 5-10 points tonight.

Auburn’s length and size will bother this team around the rim and with offensive rebounds unfortunately.

Let‘s hope I am right.

 

[mtmax]

Let's hope so pfaud. You almost nailed the FL game.

 

[cola68]

Let‘s hope I am right.

I really do. I was calm after the loss in Nat Champ game . I may come unhinged tonight if Bama comes out and has a poor showing 😂

 

[Lemley Gilbert]

Well I don't see top four in sec hope I'm wrong

 

[Sassy12]

Rough week in Bama Athletics. Hopefully, MBB, WBB and gymnastics will pick up the pace this weekend. MSU, Ole Miss and UF all will be tough. Need to pick up a SEC road win.

 

[pwestbro61]

Team will be a 8-10 seed by season’s end.

 

[jtr4dad]

Team will be a 8-10 seed by season’s end.

You and I butt heads on a lot of things, but I think you're pretty accurate here. If anything, you may be a little optimistic. We still have to play Baylor, the boogs on the road, and LSU, MSU, and Kentucky twice each. With the way we're playing at the moment I realistically don't see more than 2 wins out of those 8 games. We're just a shell of the team that beat Gonzaga and Houston. There's no way we beat those two if we play them now. I think we'll be a bubble team and we'll all be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

 

[T I G E R]

You and I butt heads on a lot of things, but I think you're pretty accurate here. If anything, you may be a little optimistic. We still have to play Baylor, the boogs on the road, and LSU, MSU, and Kentucky twice each. With the way we're playing at the moment I realistically don't see more than 2 wins out of those 8 games. We're just a shell of the team that beat Gonzaga and Houston. There's no way we beat those two if we play them now. I think we'll be a bubble team and we'll all be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Boogs*

and zero chance bama is a bubble team with wins over three ranked teams.

 

[BamaNavyCPO]

I’d be shocked .

Vegas has Bama -3 tonight.

I think Bama loses by 5-10 points tonight.

Auburn’s length and size will bother this team around the rim and with offensive rebounds unfortunately.

This ^^^

 

[pfaud001]

Alabama is an excellent team. There is no way we are a bubble team. The barn is elite and I don't see anyone beating them in the SEC this year except us or KY. I had not watched much of the barn till last night and all I had is seen is highlights of their tall white guy. I knew Bama would shut him down, and Bama did. Smith was another story. Smith is the best player I have seen in a long time.

 

[jtr4dad]

Alabama is an excellent team. There is no way we are a bubble team. The barn is elite and I don't see anyone beating them in the SEC this year except us or KY. I had not watched much of the barn till last night and all I had is seen is highlights of their tall white guy. I knew Bama would shut him down, and Bama did. Smith was another story. Smith is the best player I have seen in a long time.

Excellent teams don't give up 92 points to a Missouri squad that only scored 45 against Liberty and 54 against Northern Illinois. They were also missing a couple of players against us, and were at full strength in those other games.

 

[ATLSwag17]

Alabama is an excellent team. There is no way we are a bubble team. The barn is elite and I don't see anyone beating them in the SEC this year except us or KY. I had not watched much of the barn till last night and all I had is seen is highlights of their tall white guy. I knew Bama would shut him down, and Bama did. Smith was another story. Smith is the best player I have seen in a long time.

Auburn is definitely elite, and with an average game from JQ we win. Looking at the rest of our road games, which ones do we win? @UGA? I don't see any locks left. This team reminds me a lot of the 2002-2003 team. Big win vs. OU, ranked #1 then lost at Utah. Season fell apart. That's the trajectory this team seems to be on.

 

[jd82tide]

Auburn is damn good. No way other way to say it. Proud of how we battled back and I was up till the bitter end. Late game decisions, shot selection, and inability to make a basket in crucial situations seem to be a common theme the last 5-6 games. I see this team as a 7 seed who will squeak by some of the lesser teams and then battle and lose some close games against the better teams. There is no Herb Jones, a heartbeat of the team. Gary plays hard, Ellis battles his butt off, Bediako looks afraid to dunk from one foot away. Our guards when hot can really get the points to add up fast. Too many times recently though we settle for no pass possessions and jacking up a contested three. I know this team has in them, because I've seen it. Something is just off. Confidence, trust, I don't know what it is, but something just seems off the last six games. JD and Noah give us good minutes some nights which keeps us competitive. Still there's no way we lose to a Missouri team missing two starters. Crap effort on defense and looked like every man for himself on offense. Oats needs to get us back on track.

 

[frazor]

Auburn is definitely elite, and with an average game from JQ we win. Looking at the rest of our road games, which ones do we win? @UGA? I don't see any locks left. This team reminds me a lot of the 2002-2003 team. Big win vs. OU, ranked #1 then lost at Utah. Season fell apart. That's the trajectory this team seems to be on.

Bama just doesn't seem to have a guy that can go out and push the team to victory. This team needs to figure out a way to stop the bleeding though or heads are going to continue to hang.
As for AU their talent and swag remind me a lot of that final 4 team.

 

[pfaud001]

Excellent teams don't give up 92 points to a Missouri squad that only scored 45 against Liberty and 54 against Northern Illinois. They were also missing a couple of players against us, and were at full strength in those other games.

Some teams don't play well at other places and that seems to be Bama at Mizzou. The Kobe kid was a match up nightmare for us and that happens. Alabama coasted in that game and paid for it. If you don't think Bama is an excellent team, then I don't know what to say. Bama has beaten some big time teams this year. Losing to the barn is nothing to be ashamed of. The barn is only going to only get better. Bama just has figure out the frontcourt and play better defense. That will happen.

 

[pwestbro61]

Some teams don't play well at other places and that seems to be Bama at Mizzou. The Kobe kid was a match up nightmare for us and that happens. Alabama coasted in that game and paid for it. If you don't think Bama is an excellent team, then I don't know what to say. Bama has beaten some big time teams this year. Losing to the barn is nothing to be ashamed of. The barn is only going to only get better. Bama just has figure out the frontcourt and play better defense. That will happen.

What about this team could be described as “ excellently”? Shooting? Defense? Rebounding? Half court offense? Just curious.

 

[pfaud001]

What about this team could be described as “ excellently”? Shooting? Defense? Rebounding? Half court offense? Just curious.

I will keep it simple. They have beaten great teams. They crushed Miami which just beat Duke at Duke. They beat Gonzaga, Houston, Tennessee, at Florida. Bad teams don't have resume.

 

[pwestbro61]

I will keep it simple. They have beaten great teams. They crushed Miami which just beat Duke at Duke. They beat Gonzaga, Houston, Tennessee, at Florida. Bad teams don't have resume.

They are not bad and have some really good wins. But not trending where they need to in Mid January.

 

[TideFever]

Alabama is an excellent team. There is no way we are a bubble team. The barn is elite and I don't see anyone beating them in the SEC this year except us or KY. I had not watched much of the barn till last night and all I had is seen is highlights of their tall white guy. I knew Bama would shut him down, and Bama did. Smith was another story. Smith is the best player I have seen in a long time.

I want to believe that but the trend is going the wrong direction. Plus basically all of the SEC teams that we play twice can push us around inside and out play us in transition because we have one shooter and a bunch of brick masons and compound it by not being able to make up the difference by rebounding.

Would a Bama team with a 9-9 conference record get in the tournament? Right now that looks like our realistic ceiling of a record unless this team figures out a few things and quickly.

We'll know a lot more about what this team can be by this time next week. We play at Starkville Sat and at home against LSU next Wed. Win those and I'll buy that we aren't a bubble team. Right now I'm not sure we win both games. We could lose both.


I said it in another thread but right now something about this team just feels off. Not sure if its mounting frustration after peaking against Houston or something deeper. But we have long stretches where it seems some guys are playing one game and other guys are in a different place mentally.

 

[jtr4dad]

I will keep it simple. They have beaten great teams. They crushed Miami which just beat Duke at Duke. They beat Gonzaga, Houston, Tennessee, at Florida. Bad teams don't have resume.

We were looking like an excellent team until about a month ago. We are 3-4 since the Houston game. The 3 wins are a nail biter against Jacksonville State, another nail biter against a Tennessee team missing their top two players, and a victory over a Florida squad coming off an extended Covid break that wasn’t back to game shape yet. Do you actually believe that we would beat Gonzaga or Houston again the way we’re playing right now? This team has regressed mightily in the last month. I hope we can fix it soon, but I’m not optimistic with what I’ve seen the last few games.

 

[cola68]

Some teams don't play well at other places and that seems to be Bama at Mizzou. The Kobe kid was a match up nightmare for us and that happens. Alabama coasted in that game and paid for it. If you don't think Bama is an excellent team, then I don't know what to say. Bama has beaten some big time teams this year. Losing to the barn is nothing to be ashamed of. The barn is only going to only get better. Bama just has figure out the frontcourt and play better defense. That will happen.

Excellent is a bit of hyperbole.

They have played like that at times. The problem is EXCELLENCE implies consistency.

This team is inconsistent on both ends of the court.

No other way to describe a team that allows an Auburn guard to dribble 3/4 of the court for an uncontested layup.

 

[Jordan Harper]

They are not bad and have some really good wins. But not trending where they need to in Mid January.

They’ve played arguably the toughest schedule in CBB and have 3 ranked wins so far. Alabama is past being a bubble team. You look at the bubble teams right now and they’re laughable. They’ll be at the lowest a 7 with their SOS and wins. But I think they’ll end up around a 5

 

[pfaud001]

To answer all all the responses, I will echo Harper. Show me another team that has played our schedule with as good as record. Oats said at the beginning of the year that we will not have as good of record, but maybe have a better team. The team has regressed because teams are playing us different. I think we will adjust. The 3s haven’t fallen as much, but I think that will change sooner than later.

 

[TideFever]

Ark up on Mizzou 49-15 at the half. That mizzou loss was abominably bad.

Gators 0-3.

 

[jtr4dad]

Ark up on Mizzou 49-15 at the half. That mizzou loss was abominably bad.

Gators 0-3.

Missouri finished with a whopping 43 points last night. Considering their offensive ineptitude against every other power 5 team they have faced this season, the Missouri game may have been the worst defensive display by an Alabama basketball team that I have witnessed since I started following Tide hoops in the late 1960's.

 

[BeastofBourbon]

To answer all all the responses, I will echo Harper. Show me another team that has played our schedule with as good as record. Oats said at the beginning of the year that we will not have as good of record, but maybe have a better team. The team has regressed because teams are playing us different. I think we will adjust. The 3s haven’t fallen as much, but I think that will change sooner than later.

Oats also said last week that if this team doesn't start playing defense they won't be competing for any championships. Defense didn't look any better against Auburn.

 

[jtr4dad]

They’ve played arguably the toughest schedule in CBB and have 3 ranked wins so far. Alabama is past being a bubble team. You look at the bubble teams right now and they’re laughable. They’ll be at the lowest a 7 with their SOS and wins. But I think they’ll end up around a 5

We obviously wouldn't be a bubble team If the tournament started today. No one is saying that, and it would be idiotic to even suggest that. The problem is that the tournament doesn't start today. It begins in March. Unless some drastic changes occur between now and then we will probably be squarely on the bubble when Selection Sunday rolls around. We still have to face Kentucky and LSU twice each. It would take a minor miracle IMO for us to win even one of those games with the way we've played since taking down Houston. We also have to play Mississippi State twice, with the first matchup being this Saturday in Starkville. The bullies, which is an apt description of their team this year with an imposing front court of Tolu Smith, Garrison Brooks, and DJ Jeffries, are not a good matchup for us. Add in guard Iverson Molinar, who is probably playing better than any guard in the SEC at the moment, and it gets even worse for us. I don't think we have a guard who can contain him. One factor that my play in our favor is that Smith hasn't played in their last 2 games. State has been tight lipped about the situation, saying only that it's a non-injury issue. It is rumored to be Covid related, but that hasn't been confirmed. If he is a no go, I would give us an almost 50/50 shot at winning. If he plays, I would say our chances would drop to the 25-30% range. We also still have to face Baylor, and we have a return engagement with the boogs in cow town. In summation, we're looking at a bunch more losses if we don't begin playing much better than we have in the last seven games.

 

[Sassy12]

They have lacked that intensity we saw at the beginning of the year. Hope they step it up on defense and somehow those 3 s begin to fall. I agree that we are trending downward and need to win at MSU to stop the bleeding. After watching MSU last night not sure if we can pull a win out.

 

[rsaxoniii]

My thoughts:

Our great offense is fed by intense defense.
We lack quality depth. The team needs 10 players to be able to compete consistently at it's highest level.
I don't believe 7-8 guys can give everyone what they want for 40 minutes. They get tired when we play at an extreme pace on both sides.
Team also lacks a true leader while a couple of guys are naturally selfish but are great at being unselfish but it appears forced.

The loss of Burnett is devastating.

 

[pwestbro61]

Bama has no post game. Tide will never completely get over the hump until they have a real physical bruiser down low. Many, many teams seem to have that all day.

 

[jtr4dad]

Bama has no post game. Tide will never completely get over the hump until they have a real physical bruiser down low. Many, many teams seem to have that all day.

That is why I’m hoping that Tolu Smith doesn’t play today. He, Garrison Brooks, and DJ Jeffries would be too much for our front court guys to handle IMO. Throw in Iverson Moilnar in the backcourt and we don’t match up well at all.

 

[anon_z8qxv7qt5719f]

Teams are using Oat's playing philosophy against him and forcing drives to the hoop. We ain't finishing! We ain't hitting the treys either. That plus slack defense and rebounding is why we are losing.