NCAA Tournament Outlook (Pre SEC Tournament)

Jordan Harper

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Alabama wraps up its roller coaster regular season with a record of 19-12 after losing to LSU in OT on the road. Right now, I'd say they're sitting on the top of the 6 seed/ bottom 5 seed line. Lunardi has Alabama as the fourth 5 seed, but most others have them as a top two 6 seed. Based on their metrics of being 28th in NET, 1st SOS, having likely 13 losses, and assuming they don't beat UK they'll end up on the 6 seed line.

If Alabama were to beat UK on Friday (if they win their first game), then that would move them to the 5 seed solidly. Realistically, I see them as a 6 seed. If they could somehow end up in Providence's bracket with them being the 3 seed then that would be a huge break. The other 3 seeds (Tennessee, Texas Tech, Purdue, Villanova, etc) are not ideal. Tennessee and Texas Tech aren't bad matchups because they can't score, but their defense would suffocate. Purdue is the worst matchup of all of them. Regardless, Alabama will end up being a top 6 seed in a down year under Oats. If this is the floor then there's A LOT to be excited for.
 

OatsMeal

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Could potentially get back on the 5 line with a close UK loss. Would need to be a very competitive game.
 

StablerCountry

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Reading this gives me Hope
Alabama wraps up its roller coaster regular season with a record of 19-12 after losing to LSU in OT on the road. Right now, I'd say they're sitting on the top of the 6 seed/ bottom 5 seed line. Lunardi has Alabama as the fourth 5 seed, but most others have them as a top two 6 seed. Based on their metrics of being 28th in NET, 1st SOS, having likely 13 losses, and assuming they don't beat UK they'll end up on the 6 seed line.

If Alabama were to beat UK on Friday (if they win their first game), then that would move them to the 5 seed solidly. Realistically, I see them as a 6 seed. If they could somehow end up in Providence's bracket with them being the 3 seed then that would be a huge break. The other 3 seeds (Tennessee, Texas Tech, Purdue, Villanova, etc) are not ideal. Tennessee and Texas Tech aren't bad matchups because they can't score, but their defense would suffocate. Purdue is the worst matchup of all of them. Regardless, Alabama will end up being a top 6 seed in a down year under Oats. If this is the floor then there's A LOT to be excited for.
Good read. Maybe I can borrow Hope from GOAT
 
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gdh1954

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I’m with everyone else on this board who’s incredibly disappointed with how this season played out. I had such high hopes for this team and man I was wrong. Just goes to show how important character and leadership are in college basketball. But I’m choosing to look at this in a glass half full manner. If winning 19 games and being a 6 seed in the tournament is a disappointing season, that makes me feel pretty good. I can vividly remember at this point and n the season, every single year, we’ve been on the bubble or worse. I’ll take being a lock for a 6 seed during a down year in a heartbeat compared to where we were before Oats got here
 

D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7

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I’m with everyone else on this board who’s incredibly disappointed with how this season played out. I had such high hopes for this team and man I was wrong. Just goes to show how important character and leadership are in college basketball. But I’m choosing to look at this in a glass half full manner. If winning 19 games and being a 6 seed in the tournament is a disappointing season, that makes me feel pretty good. I can vividly remember at this point and n the season, every single year, we’ve been on the bubble or worse. I’ll take being a lock for a 6 seed during a down year in a heartbeat compared to where we were before Oats got here
If we were to win 3 games in the tournament we would all forget the up and down nature of this season.. it’s the flawed yet simultaneously incredible thing about college basketball. A tournament run is magical and cures all
 

BAMACOASTIE

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There were several games this year that were very hard to watch and I have been down on this team for that reason but I will take a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament all day. Still proud of this team. The potential of this team is still sky high and the season is not over yet. They could surprise us all.
 
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RANGER520

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Hey Harper , how’s the Colts baseball team doing ? Your the head coach right?
 

T I G E R

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srs question though… can this season really be considered “down” when bama was considered to be led by a highly experienced backcourt led by upperclassmen thought to be the best in the country? highly coveted transfer noah gurley and two top 100 players in bediako and gary down low round out a roster that was unanimous top 15 and as high as 3 by some publications.


oats might well be a good coach, and he certainly appears to be able to recruit, but his results this year are questionable by any measure.
 
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D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7

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srs question though… can this season really be considered “down” when bama was considered to be led by a highly experienced backcourt led by upperclassmen thought to be the best in the country? highly coveted transfer noah gurley and two top 100 players in bediako and gary down low round out a roster that was unanimous top 15 and as high as 3 by some publications.


oats might well be a good coach, and he certainly appears to be able to recruit, but his results this year are questionable by any measure.
Bama was expected to have josh primo and numari Burnett when that came out. Plus half the teams on the list aren’t making the tournament it’s not like it’s science. JD simply wasn’t ready to be depended on as an elite player and this team just had leadership issues… they had I think 7 or 8 Q1 wins. Disappointing outside of those games I’ll agree but it’s not like it’s a total flop. Just a team that thought it could relax against the bad teams and got bit by that mentality. Not oats greatest coaching job but keeping perspective is important. 6 seed in a down year is a feat at Alabama
 

jtr4dad

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Bama was expected to have josh primo and numari Burnett when that came out. Plus half the teams on the list aren’t making the tournament it’s not like it’s science. JD simply wasn’t ready to be depended on as an elite player and this team just had leadership issues… they had I think 7 or 8 Q1 wins. Disappointing outside of those games I’ll agree but it’s not like it’s a total flop. Just a team that thought it could relax against the bad teams and got bit by that mentality. Not oats greatest coaching job but keeping perspective is important. 6 seed in a down year is a feat at Alabama
We all hope that it’s just a down year, but there’s no way to know for certain until a couple of years down the road. It’s not like Oats is the Nick Saban of college basketball with a resume full of national championships. He has been here 3 years now and has finished with a winning conference record just once, and has has only one 20 win regular season. Was last year the outlier or is this season just a bump in the road? We’ll know more this time next year.
 

D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7

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We all hope that it’s just a down year, but there’s no way to know for certain until a couple of years down the road. It’s not like Oats is the Nick Saban of college basketball and has a resume full of national championships. He has been here 3 years now and has finished with a winning conference record just once, and has has only one 20 win regular season. Was last year the outlier or is this season just a bump in the road? We’ll know more this time next year.
I mean that’s definitely true. But you can’t deny a double conference championship followed by a 5-6 seed The next year with a top 5 recruiting class signed isn’t a great place to be sitting for Bama basketball. Look at our 25 seasons before oats. Obviously this thing could come off the rails but I don’t see the fun in sitting around waiting for it to happen. There is a lot to be excited about
 

jtr4dad

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I mean that’s definitely true. But you can’t deny a double conference championship followed by a 5-6 seed The next year with a top 5 recruiting class signed isn’t a great place to be sitting for Bama basketball. Look at our 25 seasons before oats. Obviously this thing could come off the rails but I don’t see the fun in sitting around waiting for it to happen. There is a lot to be excited about
I’m not predicting that our program will be coming off the rails and I’m certainly not sitting around waiting for it to happen. I want us to be as dominant in basketball as we are in football and softball. All I’m saying is that while we hope that this year is just a temporary step back, we won’t know for sure until next season at the earliest. Last season was great, but one season isn’t a trend. I want to be elite consistently, not once every few years.
 
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OF3052

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I’m not predicting that our program will be coming off the rails and I’m certainly not sitting around waiting for it to happen. I want us to be as dominant in basketball as we are in football and softball. All I’m saying is that while we hope that this year is just a temporary step back, we won’t know for sure until next season at the earliest. Last season was great, but one season isn’t a trend. I want to be elite consistently, not once every few years.
We are all hoping THIS YEAR is the outlier. I have this gnawing thought/concern that last years' result might have been more a product of the leaders that we had on the the team. Herb, JP, Alex Reese AND Jordan Bruner all set the tone for focus, effort and performance. When the focus, effort and performance was lacking, they would hold team mates accountable to step up. Those guys were all really important to that run last year.

Focus, effort and performance is totally absent within this team this year at times. And no one on the floor is demanding for anything different. So....it continues.

We ALL hope next year will be better! For sure! Roll Tide!
 
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Bama Swoosh

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I'm in agreement with those that focus on the lack of on the court leadership as this team's achilles heel. We're seeing just what a difference maker Herb Jones is as a starter in the NBA despite not being much of a scorer. I loved Alex Reese off the bench as well as my second favorite floor leader type guy.
Half the time I feel like this year's team is more worried about their hair than playing with emotion and focus. No doubt Quinerly and Shack went to the same barber. Gary and Ellis had identical red streaks in their hair to start the season. I know it's laughable, but these guys know they are on TV too.
I've thought Gurley is our most skilled big all year and have been hoping for him to land a consistent 25-30 minute role per game. Rojas plays entirely too many minutes for my liking (I have him behind Gurley and Bediako).
I've certainly questioned Oats at times. He doesn't use timeouts to calm us down/halt another team's momentum. I watch all of our games closely and still don't see any kind of consistent rotation in an effort to develop roles on the team, but of course part of that is a function of looking for those floor leaders/sitting guys that are sleepwalking on the floor.
At the end of the day - Harper makes a great point that despite all of our discomfort as fans, we are solidly in the NCAA tournament and rightfully so. I am probably not going to pick us very far, but will always hold out hope we somehow put it altogether and get on a run. Overall the program is in the best shape it's been in decades and everyone can see that. Roll Tide
 

pwestbro61

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srs question though… can this season really be considered “down” when bama was considered to be led by a highly experienced backcourt led by upperclassmen thought to be the best in the country? highly coveted transfer noah gurley and two top 100 players in bediako and gary down low round out a roster that was unanimous top 15 and as high as 3 by some publications.


oats might well be a good coach, and he certainly appears to be able to recruit, but his results this year are questionable by any measure.
Did anyone here ask your opinion?
 
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D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7

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We are all hoping THIS YEAR is the outlier. I have this gnawing thought/concern that last years' result might have been more a product of the leaders that we had on the the team. Herb, JP, Alex Reese AND Jordan Bruner all set the tone for focus, effort and performance. When the focus, effort and performance was lacking, they would hold team mates accountable to step up. Those guys were all really important to that run last year.

Focus, effort and performance is totally absent within this team this year at times. And no one on the floor is demanding for anything different. So....it continues.

We ALL hope next year will be better! For sure! Roll Tide!
I think Oats will have teams consistently in the tournament, and he will get us to a final 4 and win the conference another couple times if he gives us another 10 years. Oats system with a lethal group of shooters that is committed to the defensive end will be in the national championship hunt. If we have oats around here 10 more years I think we’ll get that type of group together one year. Oats system that just has a commitment to the defensive end will be a 4-6 seed type team.. I mean this years team is AWFUL from 3 and has total lapses of focus and energy on the defensive end pretty regularly and is still looking at a 6 seed..

I think If you are expecting us to be a 1-2 seed sec champion every single year you will be disappointed most of the time
 

winin11

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srs question though… can this season really be considered “down” when bama was considered to be led by a highly experienced backcourt led by upperclassmen thought to be the best in the country? highly coveted transfer noah gurley and two top 100 players in bediako and gary down low round out a roster that was unanimous top 15 and as high as 3 by some publications.


oats might well be a good coach, and he certainly appears to be able to recruit, but his results this year are questionable by any measure.
Pearls record after 3 years was miserable, GFY and your pos coach
 
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onebamamaniax

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Yeah, pearl showed what kinda of coach he is with last years team. Without 2 or 3 future NBA talent he isn't much to brag about.
 

JJBama

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It could be so much worse. Imagine being an auburn fan clinging to the hope that Bama basketball stays mediocre. It’s the only hope they have right now. Imagine living that crap show they’ve had going on down there. Their hopes and dreams have been crushed in football and are now placed squarely on Bruce Pearl. After basketball season, things are going to turn dark for the tigers.
 

Sweetlou2.0

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It could be so much worse. Imagine being an auburn fan clinging to the hope that Bama basketball stays mediocre. It’s the only hope they have right now. Imagine living that crap show they’ve had going on down there. Their hopes and dreams have been crushed in football and are now placed squarely on Bruce Pearl. After basketball season, things are going to turn dark for the tigers.
I’d take some football crap show in exchange for a final 4 run and where they are now
 

JJBama

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I’d take some football crap show in exchange for a final 4 run and where they are now
As much as I’d love a run like that, I’ll take our football dominance over their mess and be happy watching Oats build. A few years ago we’d be ecstatic about a possible 5-6 seed tourney bid.
 

Sweetlou2.0

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1 year in the mix with the elites has everyone in a natty or bust mindset. It’s pretty outrageous but you will never get rid of the football like mindset of our fan base. Is what it is
Some of these guys don’t understand even the blue bloods don’t achieve that kind of success Year I’m year out. Basketball is just a completely different thing. Wayyyy more parody, which means more upsets, and thinner margin of victory, which means more difficult for really good teams to put everything together and have an elite season.
 

pwestbro61

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srs question though… can this season really be considered “down” when bama was considered to be led by a highly experienced backcourt led by upperclassmen thought to be the best in the country? highly coveted transfer noah gurley and two top 100 players in bediako and gary down low round out a roster that was unanimous top 15 and as high as 3 by some publications.


oats might well be a good coach, and he certainly appears to be able to recruit, but his results this year are questionable by any measure.

Bye Felicia.
 

D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7

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Some of these guys don’t understand even the blue bloods don’t achieve that kind of success Year I’m year out. Basketball is just a completely different thing. Wayyyy more parody, which means more upsets, and thinner margin of victory, which means more difficult for really good teams to put everything together and have an elite season.
No doubt.. for an example, Cal at UK has been the best in the game in his time there. He won a national title in his 3rd season there, backed it up with NIT, then a 9 loss regular season after that leading to an 8 seed, but they caught fire and went to the national title before losing..


his average record is 28-8. Ton of tournament success. Incredible 12 year run, but it’s not 1 seed every single season. And frankly most of his run up there was with a pretty weak overall SEC to go up against. Not to discredit but it’s not debatable the league has made a massive improvement across the board over the last 5ish seasons.

so even Cal has years where he doesn’t do a good enough job “adjusting the system to fit his players.” Or whatever else Oats has failed at this year according to our fan base.
 
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BeastofBourbon

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1 year in the mix with the elites has everyone in a natty or bust mindset. It’s pretty outrageous but you will never get rid of the football like mindset of our fan base. Is what it is
I don't think it has anything to do with the football mindset. This current team proved to us in the non-conference schedule that they could be a top 5 team who beat the likes of Gonzaga (#1 overall seed), Baylor (defending National Champion), and Houston (Final 4 last year). Had we lost all or most of those games I don't the average fan would be as invested and discouraged with where we're currently at right now.
 
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BeastofBourbon

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No doubt.. for an example, Cal at UK has been the best in the game in his time there. He won a national title in his 3rd season there, backed it up with NIT, then a 9 loss regular season after that leading to an 8 seed, but they caught fire and went to the national title before losing..


his average record is 28-8. Ton of tournament success. Incredible 12 year run, but it’s not 1 seed every single season. And frankly most of his run up there was with a pretty weak overall SEC to go up against. Not to discredit but it’s not debatable the league has made a massive improvement across the board over the last 5ish seasons.

so even Cal has years where he doesn’t do a good enough job “adjusting the system to fit his players.” Or whatever else Oats has failed at this year according to our fan base.
I think you're comparing apples to oranges. Due to the one and dones Cal has to overhaul his roster year in and year out. Don't think we're to that point yet with Oats.
 
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D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7

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I think you're comparing apples to oranges. Due to the one and dones Cal has to overhaul his roster year in and year out. Don't think we're to that point yet with Oats.
Definitely true but my point is nobody has been better than Cal over the last 12 years as a whole and even he has had some down years mixed in. Perception is that they are a top 2 seed every single season. All I’m saying is expectations need to be plausible or fans will constantly be disappointed. I would understand some of the takes I see on here a lot more if we were headed to the NIT
 

Jordan Harper

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Alabama's struggles haven't been offensive, but defensive. The problem? They lost A LOT of length last year. Herb (6'9), Petty (6'7), Primo (6'6), Bruner (6'11) and all guys that played the perimeter. This year you have Shack (6'2), JD (6'2), JQ (6'0), Keon (6'6), Gurley (6'8) as the guys guarding the perimeter. That'll be a point of emphasis when they will likely take 3 guys from the portal. The recruiting class is also really long as well. Miller (6'8), Bradley (6'4) Griffen (6'5) (Pringle 6'9), Clowney (6'9) and throw in 7'0 Bediako coming back as well. I think what Oats is the most frustrated with is the lack of turnovers forced defensively and that has to do with the length we lost. Herb Jones is already a top 10 defender in the NBA right now and you take that for granted. Portal targets will likely be bigger guards and long, athletic wings.
 

BeastofBourbon

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Alabama's struggles haven't been offensive, but defensive. The problem? They lost A LOT of length last year. Herb (6'9), Petty (6'7), Primo (6'6), Bruner (6'11) and all guys that played the perimeter. This year you have Shack (6'2), JD (6'2), JQ (6'0), Keon (6'6), Gurley (6'8) as the guys guarding the perimeter. That'll be a point of emphasis when they will likely take 3 guys from the portal. The recruiting class is also really long as well. Miller (6'8), Bradley (6'4) Griffen (6'5) (Pringle 6'9), Clowney (6'9) and throw in 7'0 Bediako coming back as well. I think what Oats is the most frustrated with is the lack of turnovers forced defensively and that has to do with the length we lost. Herb Jones is already a top 10 defender in the NBA right now and you take that for granted. Portal targets will likely be bigger guards and long, athletic wings.
Length is certainly a problem, but the biggest issue for me is how our guards consistently get beat off the dribble.