For those that dont know, Pro Football Focus has multiple analysts grade every player for every play of every game. In other words, they know what they are talking about. Anyways, I think their analysis of this match up is interesting and thought yall might enjoy.
No. 1 Alabama at No. 16 Arkansas
Line: Alabama, -14
Under/Over: 49
Alabama has the nation’s top-graded defense thanks to No. 1 rankings in run defense and pass rushes, but Arkansas actually owns our second-ranked offense, due in large part to its excellent passing game. Generally the defense is expected to win out in these types of matchups, but while I think Alabama has too much in all three phases for the Razorbacks to overcome, our analytics suggest Arkansas can keep this close. The most encouraging statistic for Arkansas has to be the play of QB Austin Allen against the pass rush, as he has thrown for five touchdowns and has a QB rating of 107.9 when faced with pressure this season. Against Texas A&M in week four, Allen was pressured on 21 of 44 drop-backs but only took one sack and had a QB rating of 94.8 when threatened by the rush, and impressive 80.1 overall grade for the game.
On the other side of the ball Arkansas has top-end talent like CB Ryan Pulley (opposing QBs this year have a 41.7 completion percentage and 35.2 QB rating when throwing at him) and DE Deatrich Wise (four sacks and five hits this season), but certainly not the depth Alabama puts on display every week.
Look for the home crowd to help the Razorbacks keep this one close for three quarters before Alabama’s elite play in all three phases proves to be too much in the fourth.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Arkansas 20
No. 1 Alabama at No. 16 Arkansas
Line: Alabama, -14
Under/Over: 49
Alabama has the nation’s top-graded defense thanks to No. 1 rankings in run defense and pass rushes, but Arkansas actually owns our second-ranked offense, due in large part to its excellent passing game. Generally the defense is expected to win out in these types of matchups, but while I think Alabama has too much in all three phases for the Razorbacks to overcome, our analytics suggest Arkansas can keep this close. The most encouraging statistic for Arkansas has to be the play of QB Austin Allen against the pass rush, as he has thrown for five touchdowns and has a QB rating of 107.9 when faced with pressure this season. Against Texas A&M in week four, Allen was pressured on 21 of 44 drop-backs but only took one sack and had a QB rating of 94.8 when threatened by the rush, and impressive 80.1 overall grade for the game.
On the other side of the ball Arkansas has top-end talent like CB Ryan Pulley (opposing QBs this year have a 41.7 completion percentage and 35.2 QB rating when throwing at him) and DE Deatrich Wise (four sacks and five hits this season), but certainly not the depth Alabama puts on display every week.
Look for the home crowd to help the Razorbacks keep this one close for three quarters before Alabama’s elite play in all three phases proves to be too much in the fourth.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Arkansas 20
