Alabama basketball’s NCAA Tournament hopes are still alive following its victory over LSU on Saturday. Heading into Tuesday, the Crimson Tide is No. 36 in the NET rankings and No. 5 in terms of strength of schedule. ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi listed Alabama (14-11, 6-6 in the SEC) as the second team out in his latest projected bracket.
So what does Alabama have to do to make it in the field of 68? According to TeamRankings.com, the Crimson Tide would be a virtual lock (99.9 percent) if it won its remaining six regular-season games, giving it 20 wins on the season. Alabama’s percentage to make the tournament is still rather high with 19 wins (99.2 percent) as well as 18 wins (95.1 percent) but drops off dramatically with only 17 wins (72.2 percent).
On paper, Alabama’s final six games appear manageable. The Crimson Tide hosts Texas A&M on Wednesday before making back-to-back trips to Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Next comes two final home games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt before wrapping up the regular season with a game at Missouri.
For what it’s worth, WarrenNolan.com projects Alabama to finish 17-14, winning its three remaining home games while dropping all three of its contests on the road. BamaInsider decided to make its own predictions by asking Tony Tsoukalas and Jordan Harper to break down the Crimson Tide’s remaining slate game by game.
Feb. 19: Alabama vs. Texas A&M (12-12, 6-6)
Tony Tsoukalas: There’s no reason to pick against Alabama here. The Crimson Tide is coming off a big win against LSU over the weekend and should be able to ride that momentum, especially inside Coleman Coliseum. Texas A&M is fresh off a 74-69 home victory over Georgia but has yet to record back-to-back wins since early January when it beat Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in consecutive games. This will be a contrast of two different styles as the Crimson Tide ranks No. 3 in the nation averaging 75.7 possessions per 40 minutes while the Aggies rank No. 333 in the category averaging 64.6. Prediction: Alabama 83, Texas A&M 70.
Jordan Harper: Texas A&M is not a good team if you look at its numbers. The Aggies have the 10th lowest scoring offense, their NET is in the 130s, and they have some awful losses. However, they’re tied with Alabama in the SEC standings at 6-6 with some solid wins in conference. Alabama needs to control the tempo and speed up Texas A&M, and it should not have any problem defeating them. Expect Alabama to shoot a lot of 3s. If so, A&M will not be able to outscore them. Prediction: Alabama 84, Texas A&M 71.
Feb. 22: Alabama at Ole Miss (13-12, 4-8)
Tony Tsoukalas: Alabama is just 2-4 on the road in SEC play but has played competitively in all but one of those games. This weekend’s trip to Ole Miss is tougher than it might seem. The Rebels have won their last three games inside the Pavilion at Ole Miss and nearly came away with a home upset over Auburn last month before falling to the Tigers 83-82 in double overtime. The Rebels have the SEC’s second-leading scorer in Breein Tyree (19.9 points per game) and shouldn’t be taken lightly here. Still, Alabama comes out of Oxford, Miss., with a much-needed win. Prediction: Alabama 85, Ole Miss 81.
Jordan Harper: Ole Miss is an interesting team because it started SEC play losing five consecutive games but has played a lot better recently. They played Kentucky to the buzzer at Rupp, took Auburn to 2OT, and recently beat Mississippi State by 25 at home. Ole Miss is fueled by Breein Tyree, averaging 19 points a game, and the Rebels seem to go as he goes. The game is at The Tad Pad and Alabama has struggled there in recent years, but I feel this is a different team from years past and Ole Miss will need a heroic performance from Tyree to win. Prediction: Alabama 79, Ole Miss 68.
Feb. 25: Alabama at Mississippi State (16-9, 7-5)
Tony Tsoukalas: This could end up being one of Alabama’s most important games of the season. Mississippi State currently sits at No. 53 in the NET rankings, meaning that this would be a chance for Alabama to add another Quadrant 1 victory to its resume. The Bulldogs are hard to beat in The Hump as evidenced by their 5-1 home record in SEC play so far this season. However, this is a team Alabama beat by 21 points in Tuscaloosa, Ala., earlier this year. For me, this is the game that puts the Crimson Tide into the tournament. Prediction: Alabama 73, Mississippi State 66.
Jordan Harper: This is the final Quadrant 1 game left for Alabama before the SEC Tournament and it would be huge if it could grab this win. It was not a contest for Alabama when they last faced MSU as they defeated the Bulldogs 90-69 in Coleman Coliseum on Jan. 8. Mississippi State has average stats, but it excels in one area that Alabama doesn’t — scoring in the paint. Reggie Perry averages a double-double with 17 points and 10 rebounds. Keeping him from taking over the game on both ends will decide this game. Prediction: Mississippi State 78, Alabama 75.
Feb. 29: Alabama vs. South Carolina (16-9, 8-4)
Tony Tsoukalas: At this point, I have Alabama riding a four-game winning streak. I’d imagine there would be quite a bit of buzz heading into this matchup with Crimson Tide fans feeling pretty good about their tournament chances if that were the case. However, this is where Alabama’s streak hits a snag. Back-to-back home losses to Arkansas and Tennessee earlier this season showed that the Crimson Tide is still susceptible to losses inside of Coleman Coliseum. I have Alabama losing a bit of momentum here with a narrow defeat to a solid Gamecocks team that is currently 6-3 on the road this season. Prediction: South Carolina 82, Alabama 77.
Jordan Harper: South Carolina is currently fourth in the SEC and is a bubble team as well. This could potentially become an elimination game when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. Being at home, Alabama should be able to control this game. One thing you know about Frank Martin teams is they will play tough defense. Alabama will have to be ready for a battle, but it should be able to outscore a lackluster offense that South Carolina has. Prediction: Alabama 76, South Carolina 70.
March 3: Alabama vs. Vanderbilt (9-16, 1-11)
Tony Tsoukalas: This should serve as a nice bounce-back game for Alabama as it looks to wrap up its home schedule. Vanderbilt showed signs of life with an upset over LSU earlier this month. However, the Commodores shouldn’t get in the Crimson Tide’s way here, allowing for a happy Senior Night in Coleman Coliseum. Prediction: Alabama 86, Vanderbilt 67.
Jordan Harper: Vanderbilt is currently last in the SEC with their lone win coming against LSU two weeks ago, snapping a 26-game conference losing streak. Alabama defeated Vanderbilt 77-62 in Nashville, Tenn., and didn’t have any problem handling the Commodores. Vanderbilt has been playing better of late, but they’re outmanned and on the road. Prediction: Alabama 83, Vanderbilt 68.
March 7: Alabama at Missouri (12-13, 4-8)
Tony Tsoukalas: Alabama might be favorites in this game despite it being on the road. However, I don’t see the Crimson Tide closing out the regular season with three straight road wins, and I already picked Alabama to sweep through its trip to the state of Mississippi earlier. Missouri is coming off a home upset over Auburn and will add Alabama to its list of victims inside Mizzou Arena. Prediction: Missouri 80, Alabama 72.
Jordan Harper: This game is the toughest to gauge for me as Missouri is a sneaky team. Alabama defeated Missouri 88-74 back in January in a game where the Tigers shot 31-for-31 from the free-throw line, or it would’ve been a worse outcome. Missouri isn’t an athletic team and is not a good shooting team, but it plays tough defense and is scrappy. Dru Smith and Xavier Pinson had huge games against Auburn on Saturday in their win, but they will have to have a similar game to defeat Alabama. Prediction: Alabama 79, Missouri 73.
Overall projection
Tony Tsoukalas: I have Alabama finishing the regular season at 18-13 (10-8) which should be good enough to make the Big Dance considering one of my projected wins was a road victory at Mississippi State. A win in the SEC Tournament would all but lock things up for the Crimson Tide in this scenario.
Jordan Harper: Based on my predictions, I have Alabama finishing 19-12 (11-7) and it would be safely in the NCAA Tournament before playing the SEC Tournament. Alabama would likely make the NCAA Tournament with 18 wins, but 19 is the magic number to be safely in.
So what does Alabama have to do to make it in the field of 68? According to TeamRankings.com, the Crimson Tide would be a virtual lock (99.9 percent) if it won its remaining six regular-season games, giving it 20 wins on the season. Alabama’s percentage to make the tournament is still rather high with 19 wins (99.2 percent) as well as 18 wins (95.1 percent) but drops off dramatically with only 17 wins (72.2 percent).
On paper, Alabama’s final six games appear manageable. The Crimson Tide hosts Texas A&M on Wednesday before making back-to-back trips to Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Next comes two final home games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt before wrapping up the regular season with a game at Missouri.
For what it’s worth, WarrenNolan.com projects Alabama to finish 17-14, winning its three remaining home games while dropping all three of its contests on the road. BamaInsider decided to make its own predictions by asking Tony Tsoukalas and Jordan Harper to break down the Crimson Tide’s remaining slate game by game.
Feb. 19: Alabama vs. Texas A&M (12-12, 6-6)
Tony Tsoukalas: There’s no reason to pick against Alabama here. The Crimson Tide is coming off a big win against LSU over the weekend and should be able to ride that momentum, especially inside Coleman Coliseum. Texas A&M is fresh off a 74-69 home victory over Georgia but has yet to record back-to-back wins since early January when it beat Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in consecutive games. This will be a contrast of two different styles as the Crimson Tide ranks No. 3 in the nation averaging 75.7 possessions per 40 minutes while the Aggies rank No. 333 in the category averaging 64.6. Prediction: Alabama 83, Texas A&M 70.
Jordan Harper: Texas A&M is not a good team if you look at its numbers. The Aggies have the 10th lowest scoring offense, their NET is in the 130s, and they have some awful losses. However, they’re tied with Alabama in the SEC standings at 6-6 with some solid wins in conference. Alabama needs to control the tempo and speed up Texas A&M, and it should not have any problem defeating them. Expect Alabama to shoot a lot of 3s. If so, A&M will not be able to outscore them. Prediction: Alabama 84, Texas A&M 71.
Feb. 22: Alabama at Ole Miss (13-12, 4-8)
Tony Tsoukalas: Alabama is just 2-4 on the road in SEC play but has played competitively in all but one of those games. This weekend’s trip to Ole Miss is tougher than it might seem. The Rebels have won their last three games inside the Pavilion at Ole Miss and nearly came away with a home upset over Auburn last month before falling to the Tigers 83-82 in double overtime. The Rebels have the SEC’s second-leading scorer in Breein Tyree (19.9 points per game) and shouldn’t be taken lightly here. Still, Alabama comes out of Oxford, Miss., with a much-needed win. Prediction: Alabama 85, Ole Miss 81.
Jordan Harper: Ole Miss is an interesting team because it started SEC play losing five consecutive games but has played a lot better recently. They played Kentucky to the buzzer at Rupp, took Auburn to 2OT, and recently beat Mississippi State by 25 at home. Ole Miss is fueled by Breein Tyree, averaging 19 points a game, and the Rebels seem to go as he goes. The game is at The Tad Pad and Alabama has struggled there in recent years, but I feel this is a different team from years past and Ole Miss will need a heroic performance from Tyree to win. Prediction: Alabama 79, Ole Miss 68.
Feb. 25: Alabama at Mississippi State (16-9, 7-5)
Tony Tsoukalas: This could end up being one of Alabama’s most important games of the season. Mississippi State currently sits at No. 53 in the NET rankings, meaning that this would be a chance for Alabama to add another Quadrant 1 victory to its resume. The Bulldogs are hard to beat in The Hump as evidenced by their 5-1 home record in SEC play so far this season. However, this is a team Alabama beat by 21 points in Tuscaloosa, Ala., earlier this year. For me, this is the game that puts the Crimson Tide into the tournament. Prediction: Alabama 73, Mississippi State 66.
Jordan Harper: This is the final Quadrant 1 game left for Alabama before the SEC Tournament and it would be huge if it could grab this win. It was not a contest for Alabama when they last faced MSU as they defeated the Bulldogs 90-69 in Coleman Coliseum on Jan. 8. Mississippi State has average stats, but it excels in one area that Alabama doesn’t — scoring in the paint. Reggie Perry averages a double-double with 17 points and 10 rebounds. Keeping him from taking over the game on both ends will decide this game. Prediction: Mississippi State 78, Alabama 75.
Feb. 29: Alabama vs. South Carolina (16-9, 8-4)
Tony Tsoukalas: At this point, I have Alabama riding a four-game winning streak. I’d imagine there would be quite a bit of buzz heading into this matchup with Crimson Tide fans feeling pretty good about their tournament chances if that were the case. However, this is where Alabama’s streak hits a snag. Back-to-back home losses to Arkansas and Tennessee earlier this season showed that the Crimson Tide is still susceptible to losses inside of Coleman Coliseum. I have Alabama losing a bit of momentum here with a narrow defeat to a solid Gamecocks team that is currently 6-3 on the road this season. Prediction: South Carolina 82, Alabama 77.
Jordan Harper: South Carolina is currently fourth in the SEC and is a bubble team as well. This could potentially become an elimination game when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. Being at home, Alabama should be able to control this game. One thing you know about Frank Martin teams is they will play tough defense. Alabama will have to be ready for a battle, but it should be able to outscore a lackluster offense that South Carolina has. Prediction: Alabama 76, South Carolina 70.
March 3: Alabama vs. Vanderbilt (9-16, 1-11)
Tony Tsoukalas: This should serve as a nice bounce-back game for Alabama as it looks to wrap up its home schedule. Vanderbilt showed signs of life with an upset over LSU earlier this month. However, the Commodores shouldn’t get in the Crimson Tide’s way here, allowing for a happy Senior Night in Coleman Coliseum. Prediction: Alabama 86, Vanderbilt 67.
Jordan Harper: Vanderbilt is currently last in the SEC with their lone win coming against LSU two weeks ago, snapping a 26-game conference losing streak. Alabama defeated Vanderbilt 77-62 in Nashville, Tenn., and didn’t have any problem handling the Commodores. Vanderbilt has been playing better of late, but they’re outmanned and on the road. Prediction: Alabama 83, Vanderbilt 68.
March 7: Alabama at Missouri (12-13, 4-8)
Tony Tsoukalas: Alabama might be favorites in this game despite it being on the road. However, I don’t see the Crimson Tide closing out the regular season with three straight road wins, and I already picked Alabama to sweep through its trip to the state of Mississippi earlier. Missouri is coming off a home upset over Auburn and will add Alabama to its list of victims inside Mizzou Arena. Prediction: Missouri 80, Alabama 72.
Jordan Harper: This game is the toughest to gauge for me as Missouri is a sneaky team. Alabama defeated Missouri 88-74 back in January in a game where the Tigers shot 31-for-31 from the free-throw line, or it would’ve been a worse outcome. Missouri isn’t an athletic team and is not a good shooting team, but it plays tough defense and is scrappy. Dru Smith and Xavier Pinson had huge games against Auburn on Saturday in their win, but they will have to have a similar game to defeat Alabama. Prediction: Alabama 79, Missouri 73.
Overall projection
Tony Tsoukalas: I have Alabama finishing the regular season at 18-13 (10-8) which should be good enough to make the Big Dance considering one of my projected wins was a road victory at Mississippi State. A win in the SEC Tournament would all but lock things up for the Crimson Tide in this scenario.
Jordan Harper: Based on my predictions, I have Alabama finishing 19-12 (11-7) and it would be safely in the NCAA Tournament before playing the SEC Tournament. Alabama would likely make the NCAA Tournament with 18 wins, but 19 is the magic number to be safely in.
