I have given Oats the benefit of the doubt all season long. While I still believe that his system can and will result in a lot of wins he looks more and more like John Calipari with 1/3 of the talent. Even though Herb struggled to finish at the rim last season his penetration was the catalyst for the offense. Take him out and Q filled the void with his quickness. That penetration allowed for Petty, Primo, Bruner, and Reese to reach their potential even if limited. Now this year has happened at it's easy to see what happens when you don't have multiple guys who can get to the rim, not to mention no guys who can get to the rim (Notre Dame abhortion). Guys stand around and wait for the ball. That's fully on Oats. Q and JD are gone so now we'll be relying on a freshman and transfers to get to the rim next season unless Oats figures out a way to get the other 4 guys involved away from the ball. I fear that the longer Oats holds fast to this system the longer you'll see guys like Gary,Miles, Bediako, and Gurley be horribly inconsistent. None of those guys will ever contribute more than the occasional 4-5 points.
The conclusion of the matter
- Thread starter frazor
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I think these freshman coming in are going to take a lot of heat off of oats. Have to think Gurley, Rojas, and Gary saw a ton of minutes but neither of the are as well rounded as the two bigs we have coming in. I think a lot of opinions on Oats will change next year. The dude took a team mixed with his recruits and somebody elses and swept the SEC last year. Hes a good coach
You can’t run an effective 5 out offense, or even a 4 out 1 in, with only 3 guards that can shoot better than 30% from 3pt (Shack, Ellis, and Miles...none of whom could play point). Add that to the fact that those same guards were often pretty bad on defense and it’s really a miracle the team won anywhere near as much as they did.
By comparison, Bama had 8 guys shoot over 30% from 3pt last season with one over 40%…and they were a much better defensive squad.
I’m hopeful Burnett can be a solid addition, but CNO needs to bring in like 5-6 additional guys with ball skills, so Burnett can’t do it alone and CNO better bat 1000% on the freshmen or the squad is going to need more additions still.
I’m a CNO fan, but I am concerned about the 2023 roster even with what appears to be a good recruiting class. IMO Bama is short a backup PG and a legit stretch 4/5 for what they really need to be effective.
By comparison, Bama had 8 guys shoot over 30% from 3pt last season with one over 40%…and they were a much better defensive squad.
I’m hopeful Burnett can be a solid addition, but CNO needs to bring in like 5-6 additional guys with ball skills, so Burnett can’t do it alone and CNO better bat 1000% on the freshmen or the squad is going to need more additions still.
I’m a CNO fan, but I am concerned about the 2023 roster even with what appears to be a good recruiting class. IMO Bama is short a backup PG and a legit stretch 4/5 for what they really need to be effective.
So would you try and run that same offense an entire season once you realized this personnel doesn’t fit it?
How drastic of an adjustment to your offense can be made in season? All indications were that this team would shoot pretty good. It’s not like he should have known they wouldn’t be able to shoot. And the system worked extremely well at start this season and once you get into January you really can’t just completely throw who you are out the window. I’m actually wondering your thoughts on this not just shit talking oats.
also, when you are in year 3 at a program and trying to implement and recruit to a certain system, can you afford to not actually run that system? I feel like our advantage in recruiting is the freedom in the offense. If that freedom is restricted bc of shooting woes would that be a cause for pause for recruits wanting to play this system?
imo, some evolution to his system needs to happen heading into next season, offensively and defensively. I just don’t think you can start struggling in January and make those changes at that point. You kind of have to go with what you got by then. There are flaws to every system and every system can look ugly when the execution goes south. No coach has the magic solution to every flaw his team has. I’m torn on if this team overachieved with the great wins or underachieved. Idk what the fix for this team would have been
If we are to believe what we are told next year's PG isn't on the team currently. So the floor general is either going to be another 18 year old kid or a transfer learning a different system. I'd argue CNO needs to get 3 guards out of the portal because it's the one position his offense can't live without.
Bradley is going to be a good defender and solid distributor. I don’t anticipate him lighting it up scoring wise. We obviously need to add a portal PG. I have a feeling Rylan Griffen will wind up our best freshman next season and Miller will be that “if he develops he could be a lottery pick” guy.
one thing we will have next year that hurt us this year is length on the perimeter
Hard to get pumped up about a group of 18 year olds right now. I didn't expect a night like tonight to occur when this season started 5 months ago.
Yea I hear ya. I’m excited for next season but cautious about my expectations. We really need to have some luck in the portal. Freshman need to be a part but not the key piece. Outside of the absolute elite of the elite, depending on freshman isn’t a good place to be in. The adjustment from HS to major D1 ball is just massive and most have to develop parts of their game they have never had to have before due to size and ability advantageous at the Hs level. M
Nobody is saying start running the Princeton offense. We shot 30 threes a game and only shot 30% from three. How about not have such a quick trigger from 3? Or maybe try to get your best shooters most of the threes by running sets for them? Or run sets period? Maybe there’s a time a small guy switching onto Gurley, post him?
It’s not about changing everything you do. It’s about finding what your team can do best and try to do that as much as you can. It’s called adjusting to your personnel.
Some of y’all act like if we don’t run as fast as we can and shoot 3’s as fast as we can, that we won’t be able to do that next year. Is that a rule? Turnover is huge on rosters. You have to teach a whole new group how to do it regardless.
Maybe recruits should know the freedom in the system depends on whether or not you can actually shoot. Everybody shouldn’t get the same freedoms.
We need basketball players with a high basketball iq and can shoot.
We have a lot of athletes who think they can hoop.
We have a lot of athletes who think they can hoop.
That’s what we were with Grant and AJ. I thought Oats was taking us somewhere different. Hopefully these kids coming in can do it.
q will probally be back after getting hurt, jd needs to come back for his own good and with bradley coming in we should be fine at the point. we need a wing and power forward that can knock down threes.
I still don’t see Q back, JD definitely won’t be back. I think oats would prefer a lot of turnover
I think returnees will come from this group
Burnett
Bediako
Gary
Miles
Holt
Shack
Gurley
I don’t think it will be all 7, but I don’t think we get anyone back not among those 7
Burnett
Bediako
Gary
Miles
Holt
Shack
Gurley
I don’t think it will be all 7, but I don’t think we get anyone back not among those 7
IMO there is good talent in that group. CNO can take that group, add the freshmen plus a transfer guard, and have a shot to run it back a lot better next year.
But, Bama will be relying on the freshmen to produce and need development out of those returning, so anyone returning needs to be bought in and working.
What was wrong with this team had nothing to do with coaching. The team needs a major overhaul, to get players who want to get better and do what they need to do to win.
Did coach really say in post-game that they had a voluntary shoot around Thursday night and Quinerly was the only one that showed up? Maybe I heard that wrong, but if so, what other players thought they didn't need to get familiar with the court
You can never discount the effect coaching has on players whether they are over or under performing. The coach decides who plays and develops the schemes. If he/she cannot get what is needed out of a player, sit them. The coach recruited and trained the players, so the buck stops at his/her desk. The players have to perform and when they do not, it's the coach's job to either correct the behavior or replace them. The old analogy, "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink," doesn't always apply. Maybe the horse won't drink because it is not thirsty (i.e. player not having a desire to win). If you take enough horses to the watering hole, you'll eventually find one that is thirsty (i.e. players who buy in and want to win by working hard). Ain't saying I'm right...ain't saying I'm wrong, but that's how I see it.
If true, this a problem with the coaching right here. The shoot around should not have been voluntary. When it's voluntary, it's not even a suggestion let alone a directive. There was not a single player on this team that did not need improvement and all the practice time they can get.
There are rules about how much “practice” time you get, so these type of things have to be voluntary
You can also tell/instruct your players to report on their own for a shoot around with no coaches present. If the team had a leader, he would have ensured that the team took advantage of the shoot around. Many of our football players practice on their own after practice to get better. It's called taking personal responsibility for your development. There are no rules against "practicing" on your own.
I'm really not sure there was an answer this season. Its not like Bama had a dominant inside presence or midrange superstar they were ignoring. The squad was built to run a certain style and between injuries and guys not living up to projections they struggled to be effective. Plus they played better early in the season, so it wasn't until the stretch run that things really spiraled down (Shack and Miles reverted to the mean hard, so even though JQ actually played a bit better it was ugly) and as Clyde said that is a tough time to totally change what you are doing.
The shooting limitation were obvious but, as many have pointed out, the perimeter defense was maybe the biggest issue late in the year, plus it was compounded by being very limited in the combinations CNO could put on the court without having a court full of non-shooters. I mean Shack is one of Bama's best players, but he simply doesn't have the physical tools to be a defensive stopper, and we usually paired him with JD or JQ, neither of which were very good defensively either. Last year we had Herb who was an elite D player that could cover 1-5 in college, and JP really improved into a plus defender, along with a bit more size overall, so there were good options to support guys that weren't great defenders.
I think my point is I feel like the 2023 roster could look a lot more like 2022 than 2021, with a lack of sufficient talent at guard and ball skills overall, as it is currently projected and there is a limited opportunity to try and fill those gaps before the roster is locked in.
Maybe if Gurley works and becomes the guy we thought he was as a skilled 4/5, Shack improves his shot selection and consistency to become a 40%+ with high volume guy, or Miles (who as a 6-7 head at the rim run/jump guy likely has more athletic upside than anyone on the team IMO) takes the next step and learns to play locked in for 40 minutes, then Bama can take a big step forward again next season, but that feels like a bit of a pipe dream, so my presumption is Bama simply needs more guys that can play at a high level.
Any teams that don't have leaders that are ass kicker types and good players that make sure the team stays in line, will rarely succeed. Yes, Oats has some of this on him, but it's really hard to overcome no leaders. We had no chemistry and no leaders. Fix that and a lot of things will improve.
How do you know there wasn’t a midrange superstar? Nobody would know. They aren’t allowed to shoot them. It’s not even about midrange. It’s the 10 footer. Just stop and shoot the 10 footer. Shoot a floater. I don’t care what the numbers say. Watch how many points are scored in these tournament games around 10 feet and it’s not an option at all for us.
I guarantee JQ can stop on a dime at the FT line and make a high %.
Mostly because we don't have an uber athletic guy with size and those tends to be your midrange superstars (or they are also really good from deep...ex. CJ McCollum, Devin Booker, Seth Curry, Chris Paul).
But floaters are fine analytically anyway and CNO isn't telling anyone not to use a floater....10-12 footers are another matter, particularly on the baseline.
(link) https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-mapping-shots-in-the-nba-changed-it-forever/#:~:text=As it turns out, NBA,shot distance is pretty minor
***The guy I would think might benefit from a bit more midrange is Shack since he is a natural scorer and I think the coaches can live with him taking almost any shot that is open, so the primary goal with him should be getting open wherever he can regardless of position.
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CNO does say no floaters. He says layups, threes and free throws. And it’s pretty obvious that’s a something you have to live by because that is all we do. Rarely do we shoot anything else.
The midrange has nothing to do with Uber athletic guys with size. Small guys that aren’t Uber athletic like all the guys you listed are many times good from midrange bc they don’t challenge the rim as much as Uber athletic guys with size. Our guards fit that mold. Shack and JQ should shoot the midrange. When they take off dribbling, all the defender has to do is turn and run to the goal bc they know 100% without a doubt we aren’t stopping to shoot anything else.
I mentioned it above, but I could be on board with some midrange from Shack (and JQ probably, although he was a head case this year)...not sure about anyone else on the squad.
I think you missed my point on the prototype midrange guys though...the other category of guys that tend to be successful from midrange are guys that are skilled enough to score efficiently from basically anywhere they can get open....hard to say that about guys shooting 20% from outside and that was basically everyone on the squad this year.
I know everyone is down about the way this team finished the season and especially being ousted in the 1st round of the tourney, but we ran in to somewhat of a buzzsaw. Norte Dame shot lights out (62% from beyond the arch and 41% from the field.) Before the season started, Numari Burnett had been the best shooter in practices and scrimmages. We missed him badly JD took longer than people thought to get up to speed and contribute. Burnette, Jaden Bradley and Rylan Griffin is a good start for guards, plus whoever comes back if any of them And the guys we get from the portal.
I think we will be better next year but may have to take some losses early before our freshmen mature.
Not sunshine pumping, just trying to keep it real.
They didn’t shoot the 3 well. But the crazy thing is, people still tried to take the 3 away. Listen to any opposing coach and they talk about that. It’s easy to help bc we have no movement off the ball. And when you’re guarding the ball, you take away the 3 and know if we drive, you run to the goal and you have help. It’s not about being elite at mid range. It’s just about making the defense know it’s a threat, a possibility.
This, I agree with. I think the worst shot in bball is dribbling 2-3 feet inside the 3 point line and shooting. But I’m ok with the free throw line down and think it would open the rim up. I think oats will evolve toward this within his system. Rylan Griffin and Brandon Miller are both 3 level scoring threats.
the analytics that Oats bases his system on are with teams having to respect the mid range. Right now they just build a wall at the rim so that changes the percentages.
I do say the rim element will work better with the size of next years team but still want the mid range threat to be there, even if it’s just enough to earn respect
Agree. I’m not saying live and die with the mid range. Just let them know it’s an option. So they can’t just go wait at the rim the minute you put it on the floor.
IMO Shack would benefit from taking whatever is open and focusing more on getting quality looks.
Not shocking, but he played 1000% better when he got clean looks vs forcing things (outside or inside) and is a skilled enough scorer to be counted on to make open shots wherever they appear.
Outside of Shack I’m not sure who could be counted on to be effective at all three levels. I want to think JQ could have, but he was not the same player this year, so I’m not sure. Ellis’ numbers were solid enough, but I don’t think his handles were strong enough and he looked to me like a complimentary 3 (and dunks/layups) and D guy. Maybe Miles could be another one, but he has so much maturing to do on multiple levels that he wasn’t there this year and his ceiling may be more 3 and D like Ellis anyway.
JD and Gurley probably did as much midrange stuff as anyone this year, but it wasn’t all that consistent or effective since they both struggled mightily on O at times.
One somewhat hidden factor this season is Juwan Gary actually had significant scoring games in much of the early success and Bama tended to play well when he got 20+ minutes, but between injuries and some inexplicable substitution patterns he had significant stretches where he got less than 10 minutes on the floor. IMO the coaches will look back a recognize that as a mistake. Bama needs a big that can help balance the court and Gary did it somewhat unconventionally with hustle plays and occasional shooting. I think the coaches thought Gurley was going to be that guy, and he had a couple of flashes, but looking back Gary was the more consistent contributor.
That being said, he did play over 20 mins against ND (and was again reasonably effective), but Shack just shot awfully to go along with some truly terrible turnovers by JD and that doomed Bama. IMO Bama needs to make sure Gary sticks around.
I’m a bit miffed at Gary’s deal this year. When he was starting he had a lot of foul issues and he definitely battled injuries. I’d love to hear the whole story with him this year bc I know oats loves him and the effort he brings. He didn’t play to the level he we were used to for a small stretch mid season but surely that’s not the reason for such reduced minutes bc the whole team had struggles.
I like shack as a spot up shooter… if you need him to be more than that for your team to be successful it’s not ideal. I like the Shack and think he’s a great cog in the wheel, just doesn’t need to be THE cog in the wheel.
