Alabama is set to conclude one of its most memorable seasons Monday as it takes on Ohio State in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Will the Crimson Tide be celebrating its sixth title under Nick Saban or will it be staring down its second championship-game defeat in three years? That answer likely hinges on a few key factors.
Today, BamaInsider breaks down what Alabama must do Monday night if it wants to lock up its first undefeated season since 2009.
Bend don’t break
This has been the rallying cry for an Alabama defense all season. While this year’s unit hasn’t reached the dominance of past Tide defenses, it has still done a decent job of stopping its opponent when it counts.
Alabama ranks No. 15 in the nation, allowing opposing teams to score on just 73.5 percent of their trips inside the red zone. Even better, only 50 percent of those trips have resulted in touchdowns.
During its Rose Bowl victory over Notre Dame earlier this month, Alabama allowed the Irish to score on two of their three trips inside the red zone. Even then, the first of those two scores came on a fourth-and-goal touchdown run from Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams while the other occurred late in the fourth quarter with the game already in hand.
Alabama’s red zone success doesn’t bode well for Ohio State, which ranks No. 100 in the nation, scoring on 76.92 percent of its trips inside the 20-yard line. The Buckeyes scored touchdowns on four of their five red-zone appearances during a 49-28 victory over Clemson in the Sugar Bowl but managed to find the end zone just twice in seven red-zone trips against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game.
With Alabama’s offense humming along at a nearly unstoppable rate, Ohio State can’t afford to leave any points on the table Monday night.
Establish the run game
Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw for 400 yards and two touchdowns during the Sugar Bowl. It didn’t matter as the Tigers’ offense became one-dimensional, recording just 44 yards on 22 carries. Ohio State ranks second in the nation, allowing just 89.14 yards per game on the ground. The Buckeyes have held three of their opponents to less than 50 rushing yards this season, including Indiana which recorded a loss of a yard over 16 carries during a 42-35 defeat in November.
Alabama has a top-five passing offense which features newly-named Heisman winner DeVonta Smith at receiver and Davey O’Brien Award winner Mac Jones behind center. The possible return of dynamic receiver Jaylen Waddle would only add to the Tide’s potency through the air.
However, Alabama’s ground game will be equally important Monday night. In the Tide’s two biggest matchups this season — an Oct. 17 game against then-No. 3 Georgia and the SEC Championship Game against then-No. 7 Florida — it has turned to its five-star back. Najee Harris had 31 carries against both the Bulldogs and the Gators, rushing for more than 150 yards on both occasions.
If Alabama is able to establish an early presence on the ground against Ohio State, it should open up the possibility for big plays through the passing game while also giving its own defense a bit of a breather in what figures to be a shootout.
Win third downs
No one does third downs better than Alabama’s offense. The Tide leads the nation, converting on 59.26 percent of its third-down opportunities. Over the last three games, it has seen that rate jump up to 64.1 percent. That includes a Rose Bowl performance where Alabama converted on 6 of 10 third-down tries against a Notre Dame defense that had previously limited its opponents to a 29.37 percent success rate.
Conversely, Alabama knows how important it is to get off the field when it doesn’t have the ball. Over its last two games, the Tide has allowed its opponents to convert on 59.25 percent (16 of 27) of its third-down chances. Those struggles almost proved costly during a 52-46 victory in the SEC Championship where Florida converted on 8 of 11 third-down tries.
Next up for Alabama is an Ohio State team that ranks tied for No. 6 in the nation converting on 50 percent on third down. The Buckeyes also rank No. 25 in the nation, limiting their opponents to a 35.11 percent success rate on the down.
Whoever controls third down Monday night will likely take control of the game. That could be enough to swing the balance one way or the other.
Limit non-receivers in the passing game
This has been a struggle for Alabama this season. During the Rose Bowl, 20 of Notre Dame’s 28 receptions were recorded by non-receivers as the Irish were led by freshman tight end Michael Meyer who reeled in six catches for a team-high 62 yards.
Problems against the tight end position are nothing new for the Tide. Alabama allowed Mackey Award winner Kyle Pitts to record seven receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown in the SEC Championship Game. Before that, Texas A&M’s Jalen Wydermyer tallied eight catches for 82 yards against the Tide while Ole Miss’ Kenny Yeboah recorded seven receptions for 181 yards and two touchdowns.
Ohio State utilized tight end Jeremy Ruckert in the red zone against Clemson, finding the 6-foot-5, 253-pounder three times for 55 yards, including touchdowns from 12 and 17 yards out. Running back Trey Sermon also came up big out of the backfield, tallying four receptions for 61 yards against the Tigers.
Alabama will already have its hands full trying to corral quarterback Justin Fields and Ohio State’s receivers. If it allows the Buckeyes to bring more weapons into the mix, things could get ugly.
A better day from Owens
Alabama was missing its Rimington Award winner against Notre Dame as Chirs Owens replaced an injured Landon Dickerson at center. Owens posted a team-worst 45.9 offensive grade against the Irish, registering a 27.9 pass-blocking mark and a 51.7 run-blocking mark, according to Pro Football Focus. He’ll need to do much better than that against a strong Ohio State defensive front that averages 2.71 sacks per game while ranking second in the nation in run defense.
Along with filling in for Dickerson in the Rose Bowl, Owens also started in place of Evan Neal at right tackle during Alabama’s 52-3 win at Arkansas. The redshirt senior started four games at center last season before being bumped from the starting lineup after Deonte Brown served out his NCAA suspension.
