Unlike recent years, the SEC West won’t be won during Saturday night’s matchup between No. 2 Alabama and LSU. That being said, the Crimson Tide knows a slipup against a struggling Tigers team would derail its season.
Alabama (7-1, 4-1 in the SEC) is currently a 28.5-point favorite over LSU (4-4, 2-3) for Saturday’s 6 p.m. CT kickoff inside Bryant-Denny Stadium. Here are five things to watch heading into the matchup.
More big plays from Bryce Young
The buzz around Bryce Young coming out of Alabama’s win over Tennessee was his ability to pick up yards with his legs. However, the dual-threat quarterback also showed improvement in a different facet of his game.
Along with showing off his scrambling skills, Young also flashed his deep-ball passing against the Volunteers, completing 3 of 5 throws that traveled 20 or more yards in the air. Those three completions went for a total of 119 yards, giving the passer a sterling 104.2 NFL quarterback rating on such throws for the game.
Young has faced a bit of criticism for his deep-ball passing this year. Although, much of that stems from Alabama’s insane efficiency on deep throws last season when Mac Jones completed an eye-popping 58.9% of his deep balls for 1,355 yards and 17 touchdowns with just two interceptions.
Through eight games, Young hasn’t come close to those numbers. According to Pro Football Focus, he is 11 of 34 (32.3%) for 432 yards and six touchdowns with two interceptions on passes that traveled 20 or more yards this season. While that doesn’t match Jones’ efficiency, Young’s stats aren’t exactly terrible.
According to PFF, Young has a 91.4 passing grade on passes that traveled 20 or more yards through the air. That ranks No. 32 in the nation among passers who have attempted 25 or more deep balls. He has also had four dropped passes on such attempts, tied for the second-most nationally.
“I think that’s something that we want to continue to work on,” Alabama head coach Nick Saban said of Young’s deep passing. “I think we’ve connected on a few. We’ve missed a few that were decent throws, and we’ve overthrown a few. That’s something that we continue to work on, and I think we have some capabilities to make some explosive plays. We’ve made a lot of explosive plays this year, but not all of them have been deep balls. I think we’ve got to take what the defense gives.”
There have been times this season when defenses have taken away the deep ball by dropping back extra defenders against Alabama. When asked about that earlier this week, Young said his decision to air it out has been on a case-by-case basis. This week the Alabama quarterback should have an opportunity to go deep as he faces an LSU secondary that ranks No. 86 in the nation allowing 242.5 yards per game through the air.
A dwindling LSU secondary
Young’s job should be made easier this week as he faces an LSU secondary riddled with injuries.
The Tigers were already without their two starting cornerback as Derek Stingley Jr. (foot) and Eli Ricks (shoulder) both suffered season-ending injuries last month. With those two out, LSU moved Cordale Flott from the nickelback position to outside cornerback. However, during Wednesday’s SEC teleconference LSU head coach Ed Orgeron referred to Flott as “very questionable” with an undisclosed injury.
"I doubt he's going to play," Orgeron said when asked of Flott's status.
In addition to the loss of Stingley, Ricks and Flott, LSU will also be without safeties Major Burns (foot) and Sage Ryan. In total, the Tigers will be without four of their five starters in the secondary this weekend as safety Jay Ward is the only healthy defensive back from the first-team unit at the beginning of the season.
Despite the depleted secondary, Orgeron said his team will look to run the same defense against Alabama while possibly adding in “a couple of new wrinkles” to compensate for lack of depth.
In addition to the injuries in the secondary, LSU will also be without starting defensive linemen Ali Gaye and Andre Anthony as well as star receiver Kayshon Boutte.
A red-zone advantage
If Alabama gets inside the LSU 20-yard line on Saturday, there’s a good chance the Tide is going to find the end zone. Alabama ranks No. 13 nationally, scoring touchdowns on 73.81% (31 of 41) of its trips to the red zone. Conversely, LSU ranks No. 127 of 130 Division I teams, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 80% (20 of 25) of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
“Well, you know, the red zone offense has been productive,” Alabama running back Brian Robinson said. “We just got to get down there. We’ve got to execute. We got to run the right plays, and we got to run them right away. You know, for me, I just feel like I'm always confident that I can punch the ball in when I'm called on, especially in the red zone.”
Robinson has accounted for more than a third of Alabama’s red zone touchdowns, including 11 scores on the ground and one through the air. The 6-foot-1, 225-pound back has run in nine of his touchdowns this season from inside the 5-yard line.
“The way he has patience, he knows where his holes are gonna be,” Orgeron said of Robinson during Wednesday’s SEC teleconference. “He has one cut. I’ve seen linebackers over-running him. He knows how to miss tackles. He knows how to break through tackles. I think the guy’s having a fantastic year and is a fantastic back.”
A few reunions
As in most years, Alabama has several Louisiana players on its roster. This season’s Bayou-State bunch is made up of outside linebacker Christopher Allen, wide receiver Slade Bolden, inside linebacker Christian Harris, defensive lineman Phidarian Mathis and safety Kaine Williams.
“It means a lot,” Mathis said of the matchup against LSU. “My family gets to come down, and we get to enjoy ourselves. Everybody will be rooting for me, my family and so forth. I can’t wait to get on the field. And also meet some of my friends that are at LSU.”
Harris, who played his high school football for University Laboratory School on LSU’s campus, said he’s looking forward to going up against fellow Baton Rouge, La. native Tyrion Davis-Price, who attended rival Southern University Lab School.
“I mean, each year it was always a good game whether there was a home game or an away game for us,” Harris said of going up against the current LSU back in high school. “Like I said, he’s always brung it every game. I got to play against him a little bit in little league as well. I mean I got to play against him all my life, so it's pretty cool to get a chance to do it again.”
Bolden, Harris and Mathis all hold starting roles for Alabama. Allen is out for the remainder of the season with a foot injury while Williams, a freshman, has yet to make an appearance for the Tide.
Forced fumbles
By now, Alabama players must be growing tired of their head coach mentioning the team’s lack of forced fumbles. Saban has brought up the Tide’s inability to knock the ball loose several times this year, and for good reason.
Through eight games, Alabama has forced just two fumbles, tied for the second-lowest total in the nation. That’s quite the dropoff from last season when the Tide ranked second nationally with 15 forced fumbles over 13 games.
“That's something also that we worked on during the bye week, you know, just getting that ball out,” Mathis said. “Coach has been preaching it all last week long and I'm pretty sure he’s gonna preach it some more. So coming into this week, we’re gonna keep practicing it. And the more you practice it, the better you have a chance of getting it out during the game so that's what we got to do.”
LSU has coughed up the ball 12 times through eight games, losing possession on just three of those occasions. The Tigers fumbled the ball four times their last time out against Ole Miss, losing possession twice during a 31-17 defeat to the Rebels.
