It's no secret that Alabama is a huge underdog (11.5 points) to UCONN. The Huskies have been steamrolling teams in the NCAAT.
I've mentioned it before with UNC, Clemson, and Grand Canyon, but who has UCONN faced that is similar to Alabama and how did they fare?
The Big East was a top heavy conference this season with their 3 best teams (UCONN, Marquette, Creighton) being the only 3 teams making the NCAAT. All three of those were top 3 seeds in the NCAAT.
Which Big East teams compare to Alabama?
In terms of Adjusted Offense, Creighton (9) and St. Johns (19) are the closest to Alabama (4), while UCONN themselves have the #1 adjO.
In terms of tempo, Xavier (31) and St. Johns (78) are the closest to Alabama (9) in adjT.
How did they fare against these teams?
Creighton: 1-1 (14 point win @ home, 19 point loss on road)
St. Johns: 3-0 (average margin of victory of 7. Two games decided by 5 points or fewer.)
Xavier: 2-0 (5 point win on road and 43 point win at home.)
Creighton is 11th in KenPom and St Johns is 24th overall
What about the non conference? Was there a team that compares to Alabama's style of play?
UCONN played a very tough non con, playing North Carolina (W), Gonzaga (W), and Kansas (L).
Only North Carolina ranks in the top 75 in both adjO (14) and AdjT (42).
Obviously Illinois was the closest comp to any one UConn has faced ( 4 AdjO, 80 adjD, 66 adjT), but it is so hard to use them based off that outlier 30-0 run happening. Also, Illinois does not have good shooters and continued to drive into Clingan and Oats won’t do that.
What does all this mean? Am I saying Alabama is going to win because of all these statistics? No.
What I am saying, is nobody in the Big East came close to playing the style Alabama does.
What happened when Creighton dominated UCONN? They made 14 threes.
Alabama poses a different threat to UCONN they haven't seen all year.
They can spread UCONN's bigs out to the perimeter and force them in high PnR situations. Similar to what they did to Zach Edey earlier this year and hit 19 threes.
These are the two things Alabama has to do:
1) Hit threes. Obviously right? 15 is a magic number here imo. They're 7-1 this year when hitting 15+ threes. The attempts needs to be around the 40-42 mark. Attacking Clingan is a wasted possession, ask Illinois.
A successful possession is making their bigs guard the perimeter.
2) Force UConn into playing Bama's style. UConn has one of the slowest tempos in the country at 315 adjT. Make them uncomfortable and feel like they have to shoot 3's. They've struggled this tournament shooting 28% from 3 (25/89).
Alabama did this to both UNC and Clemson.
UConn will try to force feed Clingan or Karaban every possession, but I would make them take 3's and live with the result.
Alabama is shooting an incredible 39% (48/127) from 3. If it's a 3 point battle, I like Alabama's chances a lot. Just cant let them dictate the pace.
Will it take an A game from Alabama to win? Probably an A+.
Will it take a B or C game from UConn for Alabama to win? Yes.
All the pressure is on UConn and the longer Alabama can hang around the more pressure builds for UConn.
It's why they play the games!
I've mentioned it before with UNC, Clemson, and Grand Canyon, but who has UCONN faced that is similar to Alabama and how did they fare?
The Big East was a top heavy conference this season with their 3 best teams (UCONN, Marquette, Creighton) being the only 3 teams making the NCAAT. All three of those were top 3 seeds in the NCAAT.
Which Big East teams compare to Alabama?
In terms of Adjusted Offense, Creighton (9) and St. Johns (19) are the closest to Alabama (4), while UCONN themselves have the #1 adjO.
In terms of tempo, Xavier (31) and St. Johns (78) are the closest to Alabama (9) in adjT.
How did they fare against these teams?
Creighton: 1-1 (14 point win @ home, 19 point loss on road)
St. Johns: 3-0 (average margin of victory of 7. Two games decided by 5 points or fewer.)
Xavier: 2-0 (5 point win on road and 43 point win at home.)
Creighton is 11th in KenPom and St Johns is 24th overall
What about the non conference? Was there a team that compares to Alabama's style of play?
UCONN played a very tough non con, playing North Carolina (W), Gonzaga (W), and Kansas (L).
Only North Carolina ranks in the top 75 in both adjO (14) and AdjT (42).
Obviously Illinois was the closest comp to any one UConn has faced ( 4 AdjO, 80 adjD, 66 adjT), but it is so hard to use them based off that outlier 30-0 run happening. Also, Illinois does not have good shooters and continued to drive into Clingan and Oats won’t do that.
What does all this mean? Am I saying Alabama is going to win because of all these statistics? No.
What I am saying, is nobody in the Big East came close to playing the style Alabama does.
What happened when Creighton dominated UCONN? They made 14 threes.
Alabama poses a different threat to UCONN they haven't seen all year.
They can spread UCONN's bigs out to the perimeter and force them in high PnR situations. Similar to what they did to Zach Edey earlier this year and hit 19 threes.
These are the two things Alabama has to do:
1) Hit threes. Obviously right? 15 is a magic number here imo. They're 7-1 this year when hitting 15+ threes. The attempts needs to be around the 40-42 mark. Attacking Clingan is a wasted possession, ask Illinois.
A successful possession is making their bigs guard the perimeter.
2) Force UConn into playing Bama's style. UConn has one of the slowest tempos in the country at 315 adjT. Make them uncomfortable and feel like they have to shoot 3's. They've struggled this tournament shooting 28% from 3 (25/89).
Alabama did this to both UNC and Clemson.
UConn will try to force feed Clingan or Karaban every possession, but I would make them take 3's and live with the result.
Alabama is shooting an incredible 39% (48/127) from 3. If it's a 3 point battle, I like Alabama's chances a lot. Just cant let them dictate the pace.
Will it take an A game from Alabama to win? Probably an A+.
Will it take a B or C game from UConn for Alabama to win? Yes.
All the pressure is on UConn and the longer Alabama can hang around the more pressure builds for UConn.
It's why they play the games!
