We are officially 1/3 of the way through the conference season. Alabama is in great shape in regard to the NCAA tournament right now. They’re trending towards anywhere between a 3-6 seed right now. I’m going to take a look at the rest of the conference slate as it stands.
Looking at how it stands right now for the rest of Alabama’s schedule, here is the breakdown of quadrant games they have left (subject to change obviously):
Quad 1: 5 games
-@ AU, @ UK, @ OM, UT, @ UF
Quad 2: 5 games
-@ UGA, MSU, @ LSU, A&M, UF,
Quad 3: 2 games
-LSU, ARK
Let’s just say at minimum, Alabama wins all of their home games and loses their road games. That’s a 6-6 record pushing their record to 19-12, 11-7 in SEC. That’ll be close to a top 4 seed in conference and likely around a 5/6 seed line in the NCAAT, similar to the 2022 season
Let’s say they win the games they’re likely favored in by Vegas (low-end guess). That would be more than likely be 8 games, so finishing 8-4. Pushing their record to 21-10 and 13-5 in conference. That would likely have Alabama as a 4 seed in the NCAAT and top 4 in SEC
Those are two very realistic finishing scenarios for Alabama. Looking at it, that’s a floor of 19-12 before the SECT and a median of 21-10. I’m not going to talk ceiling because I want to keep things as realistic as possible. How do I think they finish? (I shouldn’t do this):
LSU: Win
@ UGA: Win
Miss St: Win
@ AU: Loss
@ LSU: Win
A&M: Win
UF: Win
@ UK: Loss
@ Ole Miss: Win
UT: Loss
@ UF: Loss
Ark: Win
Overall Record: 21-10 (13-5)
I think anything above 20 wins this year for Alabama with their schedule is great.
Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk.
Looking at how it stands right now for the rest of Alabama’s schedule, here is the breakdown of quadrant games they have left (subject to change obviously):
Quad 1: 5 games
-@ AU, @ UK, @ OM, UT, @ UF
Quad 2: 5 games
-@ UGA, MSU, @ LSU, A&M, UF,
Quad 3: 2 games
-LSU, ARK
Let’s just say at minimum, Alabama wins all of their home games and loses their road games. That’s a 6-6 record pushing their record to 19-12, 11-7 in SEC. That’ll be close to a top 4 seed in conference and likely around a 5/6 seed line in the NCAAT, similar to the 2022 season
Let’s say they win the games they’re likely favored in by Vegas (low-end guess). That would be more than likely be 8 games, so finishing 8-4. Pushing their record to 21-10 and 13-5 in conference. That would likely have Alabama as a 4 seed in the NCAAT and top 4 in SEC
Those are two very realistic finishing scenarios for Alabama. Looking at it, that’s a floor of 19-12 before the SECT and a median of 21-10. I’m not going to talk ceiling because I want to keep things as realistic as possible. How do I think they finish? (I shouldn’t do this):
LSU: Win
@ UGA: Win
Miss St: Win
@ AU: Loss
@ LSU: Win
A&M: Win
UF: Win
@ UK: Loss
@ Ole Miss: Win
UT: Loss
@ UF: Loss
Ark: Win
Overall Record: 21-10 (13-5)
I think anything above 20 wins this year for Alabama with their schedule is great.
Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk.
