They call him “the ninja” for a reason. Nobody is better at keeping a coaching search quiet than Greg Byrne. This week, the Alabama athletic director lived up to his nickname, swiftly and silently securing a replacement for Avery Johnson three days after parting ways with the former Crimson Tide basketball coach.
The name Byrne is bringing into Tuscaloosa, Ala.— Nate Oats — was kept under wraps until the athletic director broke the news himself during a university release Wednesday afternoon.
Oats, who spent the past four years as the head coach at Buffalo, is one of the hottest names in college basketball at the moment. The 44-year old is coming off his second straight season as the Mid-American Conference Coach of the Year and has led the Bulls to a 96-43 record, reaching the NCAA Tournament three of the past four years. However, he wasn’t the name many penciled in for the job.
Following Johnson’s departure Sunday, rumors started to circulate that Alabama might make a run at former Louisville head coach Rick Pitino. Once those died down, speculation centered around former Ohio State head coach Thad Matta. Sources told BamaInsider that Matta was even on Alabama’s campus Wednesday to discuss a potential deal.
But alas, the ninja struck again.
The naming of Oats as Alabama’s 21st head basketball coach took many by surprise. Sure, he was included in several hot boards and was thought of as a suitable candidate for the job, but when news rolled in at 3:12 p.m. CT Wednesday, there were plenty of eyebrows raised.
Although, while Byrne’s latest hire was unexpected, it probably shouldn’t have been. After all, the athletic director provided a set of clues Monday that in retrospect pointed to Oats as an ideal candidate.
Here’s a look at how Oats stacked up to the four primary factors Byrne stated he was looking for in a new coach:
Player development
During his first two years at Buffalo, Oats served as an assistant under Bobby Hurley. He made an instant impact in his first season, helping lead the Bulls to a 19-15 record after the team finished 14-20 the year before. The following season, Hurley and Oates led Buffalo to its first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance.
After taking over the team during the 2015-16 season, Oats led Buffalo back to the Big Dance. During the 2017-18 season, he took the next step by upsetting No. 4 seed Arizona in the first round. He then reached the second round again this year, beating No. 11 seed Arizona State before losing to No. 3 seed Texas Tech.
Oats produced talent despite the challenges of recruiting kids to a nontraditional program in one of the nation's most frigid climates. His biggest success came in recruiting Justin Moss, the 2014-15 MAC Player of the Year.
College background
If anything, this was the area Oats was weakest at. His six years at Buffalo (two as an assistant, four as a head coach) are the extent of his Division I coaching career. Before that, he served as a head coach at Romulus (Mich.) High School from 2002-13. He also served as an assistant at Division III schools Wisconsin Whitewater (2000-02) and Maranatha Baptist (1997-2000).
Still, Oats has displayed success in his short time at the highest level. He’s also an experienced recruiter and is familiar with what it takes to get the best out of student-athletes.
Strong academics
This is a bit of a mixed bag as Oats’ teams at Buffalo demonstrated a downward trend in terms of graduation rates while his high school teams held high academic marks.
The NCAA developed a measurement system for calculating graduate success rate (GSR) that holds institutions accountable for students who transfer into their school and does not penalize colleges whose student-athletes transfer from the school in good academic standing. According to the NCAA’s Graduation Success Rate database, Buffalo’s men’s basketball team recorded an 80 GSR during the 2014-15 season. After Oats took over the team, that number progressively dropped, falling to 75, 73 and 67 the next three years.
On the flip side, Oats’ teams at Romulus High School had a 100 percent graduation rate and 40 of his 42 seniors continued on to college.
NCAA compliance
Consider this box checked. Oats appears to have been squeaky clean during his time at Buffalo and was not involved in any NCAA investigations.
