Live by the three, die by the three

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

Simply not the case for this team. I see it and hear it non stop about this team and it is a lazy narrative.

We are 31% on the season from 3. That’s not a good percentage. Poor shooting has cost us maybe 2 games, and great shooting won us maybe 2 games, the other 24 games we were like a hooker, live by the D, die by the D.

in our 10 losses, we average 83.2 points allowed as opposed to 72 ppg in our 18 wins.

We have shot above our season average 12 times this season. We are 8-4 in those games.

We have shot above 35% 8 times all season, we are 5-3 in those games.

we have shot below 30% 15 times, we are 10-5 in those games.

The point, our shooting has had little correlation with the outcome of the game. It is all about defense. This team has only shot over 40% from 3 twice all season, against Miami and Ole Miss. a team that “lives by the 3, dies by the 3” means they win when they light it up from 3(above 40%) and lose when they don’t(below 35%). We basically never shoot well enough from 3 to ever LIVE by the 3

The key to our offensive success, we have actually been a good free throw team and do a solid job getting to the line(not spectacular), we are really good around the rim and getting good looks at the rim, and we are a great offensive rebounding team with nearly 12 per game which is 8th in the country.

Basically….stop saying it’s all about making threes for this team. It’s simply not the case

 

[onebamamaniax]

There's about 5 people that I'm really surprised that hasn't commented yet.

 

[StablerCountry]

Good breakdown. And I will say poor defense and sloppy ball handling has been major issues with this team. I'll go one step deeper into this narrative. This team just does not play well together and does not play as a team and that is the starting point to all their other issues.

Its the first Bama team I can remember watching that I still say posses the ability to win it all, if they could just come together and play as a team.

 

[frig4]

Many a team have been mediocre/poor offensively and consistently won by playing good defense and not turning the ball over.

Who would you take, Bama or San Diego State?They would squeeze us like a boa constrictor.

 

[aggietider]

I’ll say again, shooting the ball fast and especially missing them, hurts the defense. Turning the ball over bc you have to go fast, hurts the defense. Shooting a lot of threes, leads to long rebounds that turn into runouts, which hurts the defense.
Playing fast and shooting lots of threes is going to effect the defense.

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

I’ll say again, shooting the ball fast and especially missing them, hurts the defense. Turning the ball over bc you have to go fast, hurts the defense. Shooting a lot of threes, leads to long rebounds that turn into runouts, which hurts the defense.
Playing fast and shooting lots of threes is going to effect the defense.

Last year?

 

[RollTide15]

Poor passing is killing this team.

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

In our 10 losses, we average 12.9 turnovers per game

In our 18 wins, we average 13.9 turnovers per game.

We average 14 turnovers per game overall. We have gone over 14 turnovers in 10 games, we are 6-4 in those games. We are 12-6 in games with 14 or less turnovers.

 

[aggietider]

Last year?

We made more three’s- less runouts and less fast breaks.
We had older players that were better defenders as a whole- who also shot the ball better.
We had a generational player in terms of helping and orchestrating the defense.
We made better decisions, which is crazy to say.
That team had better in ball defenders. Better leadership. The best help defender we will ever have, who was always really good on ball. They could get away with some turnovers. And missing more quick shots, etc. This team isn’t good enough personnel wise to get away with those things in D. And they don’t shoot it as well. So shooting fast and missing, forces this team to guard more and faster and they just aren’t as good at it.

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

We made more three’s- less runouts and less fast breaks.
We had older players that were better defenders as a whole- who also shot the ball better.
We had a generational player in terms of helping and orchestrating the defense.
We made better decisions, which is crazy to say.
That team had better in ball defenders. Better leadership. The best help defender we will ever have, who was always really good on ball. They could get away with some turnovers. And missing more quick shots, etc. This team isn’t good enough personnel wise to get away with those things in D. And they don’t shoot it as well. So shooting fast and missing, forces this team to guard more and faster and they just aren’t as good at it.

A lot of what you say is absolutely true… but doesn’t explain why some of our best shooting nights have been our worst defensive performances. We definitely aren’t as good on defense bc we don’t have as good of on ball defenders… but we are a statistically better offensive team than we were last year

 

[aggietider]

A lot of what you say is absolutely true… but doesn’t explain why some of our best shooting nights have been our worst defensive performances. We definitely aren’t as good on defense bc we don’t have as good of on ball defenders… but we are a statistically better offensive team than we were last year

And I don’t understand how we are better statistically on offense. Does that includes turnovers? FG pct? Just seems like a situation where stats can be misleading.
It seems like to me our offense, pace of play, 3 pt misses all have a negative effect on our defense.
I know our on ball defense is poor. And we don’t have Herb in the back cleaning things up either.

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

And I don’t understand how we are better statistically on offense. Does that includes turnovers? FG pct? Just seems like a situation where stats can be misleading.
It seems like to me our offense, pace of play, 3 pt misses all have a negative effect on our defense.
I know our on ball defense is poor. And we don’t have Herb in the back cleaning things up either.

We allow about 6 ppg more.
‘22 - 75.9
‘21 - 70.1

points per game almost identical
‘22 - 80.2
‘21 - 79.7

turnovers per game
‘22 - 14
‘21 - 13.9

FG%
‘22 - 44.5%
’21 - 43.5%

3p%
’22 - 30.9%
’21 - 35.2%

we are better offensive rebounding and scoring at the rim this year which are where we make up the difference from being worse from 3. Also better at the FT line

 

[rsaxoniii]

the other 24 games we were like a hooker, live by the D, die by the D.

That earns a like

 

[BeastofBourbon]

And I don’t understand how we are better statistically on offense. Does that includes turnovers? FG pct? Just seems like a situation where stats can be misleading.
It seems like to me our offense, pace of play, 3 pt misses all have a negative effect on our defense.
I know our on ball defense is poor. And we don’t have Herb in the back cleaning things up either.

I don't think people truly understand how big of a loss Herb was to this team. If nothing else changed with how this team has played other than we would still have Herb, I think Iona, Davidson, UGA, Miss St, and AU (in T-town) are all wins by virtue of his defense alone.

I hate to be Captain Obvious, without question it's going to be tough losing a player of his caliber. The point I'm trying to make is that we don't have a player on the roster remotely close to replacing him on the defensive end and that's concerning.

 

[Sweetlou2.0]

I’ll say again, shooting the ball fast and especially missing them, hurts the defense. Turning the ball over bc you have to go fast, hurts the defense. Shooting a lot of threes, leads to long rebounds that turn into runouts, which hurts the defense.
Playing fast and shooting lots of threes is going to effect the defense.

Most of our defensive issues are in the half court.

I don't think people truly understand how big of a loss Herb was to this team. If nothing else changed with how this team has played other than we would still have Herb, I think Iona, Davidson, UGA, Miss St, and AU (in T-town) are all wins by virtue of his defense alone.

I hate to be Captain Obvious, without question it's going to be tough losing a player of his caliber. The point I'm trying to make is that we don't have a player on the roster remotely close to replacing him on the defensive end and that's concerning.

no question. And not only that, but we lost an elite defender in John Petty. Several on this board just couldn’t wait for the days when we didn’t have to watch guys like Petty and Jones anymore…

 

[jtr4dad]

Most of our defensive issues are in the half court.

no question. And not only that, but we lost an elite defender in John Petty. Several on this board just couldn’t wait for the days when we didn’t have to watch guys like Petty and Jones anymore…

Not this guy. I wish like heck that we still had those "overrated Alabama high school players" like Jones, Petty, and Reese on this year's team.

 

[aggietider]

I don't think people truly understand how big of a loss Herb was to this team. If nothing else changed with how this team has played other than we would still have Herb, I think Iona, Davidson, UGA, Miss St, and AU (in T-town) are all wins by virtue of his defense alone.

I hate to be Captain Obvious, without question it's going to be tough losing a player of his caliber. The point I'm trying to make is that we don't have a player on the roster remotely close to replacing him on the defensive end and that's concerning.

We don’t have one to replace Petty, much less Herb. Heck I think Reese gave us more than what we get from many of these guys.

 

[aggietider]

We allow about 6 ppg more.
‘22 - 75.9
‘21 - 70.1

points per game almost identical
‘22 - 80.2
‘21 - 79.7

turnovers per game
‘22 - 14
‘21 - 13.9

FG%
‘22 - 44.5%
’21 - 43.5%

3p%
’22 - 30.9%
’21 - 35.2%

we are better offensive rebounding and scoring at the rim this year which are where we make up the difference from being worse from 3. Also better at the FT line

6 pts a game is a good bit. And 5 % difference from the three point line is too when a team shoots a lot of them. That’s about 12 points a game difference in points given up and 3 pt %.
Do you know the difference in possessions per game and shot attempts per game?

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

We don’t have one to replace Petty, much less Herb. Heck I think Reese gave us more than what we get from many of these guys.

We could run a lineup out last year where everyone was 6’5” or taller. We do not have a long guard this year other than Keon at 6’6” and he is a 3(and by far our best defender). Everyone else is 6’3” or less. I hate to harp on it but Primo and Burnetts length would have been very helpful and no I’m not blaming anything on them leaving just saying… I think Oats wants long guards and in his defense he thought he had a few

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

6 pts a game is a good bit. And 5 % difference from the three point line is too when a team shoots a lot of them. That’s about 12 points a game difference in points given up and 3 pt %.
Do you know the difference in possessions per game and shot attempts per game?

No I’ve never heard of such

 

[aggietider]

No I’ve never heard of such

You never heard of how many possessions a team has per game? Or how many shots they take per game?

 

[WAR_GA]

Coach Oats would LOVE this thread and all of the stats. Some very interesting stuff . .

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

You never heard of how many possessions a team has per game? Or how many shots they take per game?

I was being sarcastic as shit

 

[aggietider]

I was being sarcastic as shit

Well you’ve found all the other stats. Thought you might have it handy.
Stats can be misleading. Are we a better offensive rebounding team or do we just get more bc we take and miss more shots?

 

[G.O.A.T-23]

Simply not the case for this team. I see it and hear it non stop about this team and it is a lazy narrative.

We are 31% on the season from 3. That’s not a good percentage. Poor shooting has cost us maybe 2 games, and great shooting won us maybe 2 games, the other 24 games we were like a hooker, live by the D, die by the D.

in our 10 losses, we average 83.2 points allowed as opposed to 72 ppg in our 18 wins.

We have shot above our season average 12 times this season. We are 8-4 in those games.

We have shot above 35% 8 times all season, we are 5-3 in those games.

we have shot below 30% 15 times, we are 10-5 in those games.

The point, our shooting has had little correlation with the outcome of the game. It is all about defense. This team has only shot over 40% from 3 twice all season, against Miami and Ole Miss. a team that “lives by the 3, dies by the 3” means they win when they light it up from 3(above 40%) and lose when they don’t(below 35%). We basically never shoot well enough from 3 to ever LIVE by the 3

The key to our offensive success, we have actually been a good free throw team and do a solid job getting to the line(not spectacular), we are really good around the rim and getting good looks at the rim, and we are a great offensive rebounding team with nearly 12 per game which is 8th in the country.

Basically….stop saying it’s all about making threes for this team. It’s simply not the case

This will be TLDR but here are my thoughts on this.

The saying "live by the three, die by the three" has more to do about the number of threes taken than it does the percentage to threes made. I get the concept of 3 being more than 2, it's basic math, but the 3pt shoot is the lowest percentage shot on the court for a reason. If you are an efficient 3 pt shooting player or team, it makes sense to take the 3 more often.

It is about making three for this team because of the number of threes they take a game. Of course winning a basketball game comes down to other factors as well, but offensively there are time this team will take close to 60% of their shots from 3pt land.

Look at the Memphis game they lost, over 50% of their shots came from 3. The hit 30% from 3 but on all other shot was hitting 63%. Memphis had the FT advantage 25-12 because they took less 3pt and got to the rim whereas Bama settled for the 3. Davidson they lost by 1 and over 54% of their shots taken were from 3. They only hit 33% of those 3s while hitting 58% on other shots in that game, they also only attempted 8 FTs that game which is terrible.

The first lost to Auburn by 4, they took 31 of their 66 shots from 3, they only hit 22% of those shots so less than 1 out of 4 taken. The Miss St loss where they lost by only 2, they took 27 of 56 from 3. Connecting on only 27% but was 52% on 2pt shots. And they have had closer games than they should against some below average teams because they keep throwing up bricks from 3pt land.

They also tend to give up big leads because they will come out shooting well, get a lead, and instead of taking it to the basket to get foul or something. Against UK, that 13-0 run they went on to take the lead from Bama, they shot one 3 and that was the basket they took the 1pt lead on. The rest were short to mid-range shoots. conversely, Bama took 6 threes, missed them all obviously. A couple times they got the offensive rebound and kicked it out for another brick. They got the lead and was living off those threes when they were hitting, the died by them when they stopped falling and Bama didn't adjust...

 

[G.O.A.T-23]

Also wanted to add that missing a bunch of threes can lead to long rebounds and easier baskets at the other end.

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

Well you’ve found all the other stats. Thought you might have it handy.
Stats can be misleading. Are we a better offensive rebounding team or do we just get more bc we take and miss more shots?

We average 1.073 points per possession this year, 1.038 last year.

attempt 63 shots per game this year, 64.3 last year

56.4% from 2 this year, 50.3% from 2 last year

 

[G.O.A.T-23]

We average 1.073 points per possession this year, 1.038 last year.

attempt 63 shots per game this year, 64.3 last year

56.4% from 2 this year, 50.3% from 2 last year

Now imagine who much better this teams record would be if they didn't shoot 30+ threes a game. They honestly should be about 20-22 threes a game. The shot only 21 against Baylor and had one of their more impressive wins of the season. I've keep saying this team has good players, they just don't have efficient three point shooters therefor should not be shooting as many as they do.

 

[aggietider]

We average 1.073 points per possession this year, 1.038 last year.

attempt 63 shots per game this year, 64.3 last year

56.4% from 2 this year, 50.3% from 2 last year

Looks like we should alter our approach a little? We shoot 6% higher from 2 and 6% lower from 3 this season. That’s all I’ve said the entire time, you have to adjust to what your players can do. Round peg…square hole isn’t the answer.

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

Now imagine who much better this teams record would be if they didn't shoot 30+ threes a game. They honestly should be about 20-22 threes a game. The shot only 21 against Baylor and had one of their more impressive wins of the season. I've keep saying this team has good players, they just don't have efficient three point shooters therefor should not be shooting as many as they do.

I can agree to an extent… but now we’re a little off topic of what I’m even talking about..


live by the 3 die by the 3 implies that a team is good at shooting the 3, the key factor in them Winning is shooting the 3 well, and when they do not shoot the 3 well they lose. My point is that isn’t the case for this team and how we play on defense is far more important to whether we win or lose. Like it or hate it we run a very effective offensive system.

I get that you dislike oats and think his system sucks and hate the direction of the program and all that but this thread is about the false sentiment that Bama has to kill it from 3 to win games

 

[RTRfromGA]

This team has been infuriating to watch, but 2 positive thoughts keep me going:

1) I never imagined there would be a team that would be so unenjoyable to watch and yet a lock for the ncaa tournament. Nate really changed the game in that regard
2) this team (somehow) continues to win while doing all sorts of things wrong. If they can just do a few things right or string together some mediocre shooting performances they'll be a tough out for anyone

 

[Sweetlou2.0]

This team has been infuriating to watch, but 2 positive thoughts keep me going:

1) I never imagined there would be a team that would be so unenjoyable to watch and yet a lock for the ncaa tournament. Nate really changed the game in that regard
2) this team (somehow) continues to win while doing all sorts of things wrong. If they can just do a few things right or string together some mediocre shooting performances they'll be a tough out for anyone

If they can play with defensive intensity and just cut down on the mindless unforced turnovers they’re a Sweet 16 team or better.

 

[G.O.A.T-23]

I can agree to an extent… but now we’re a little off topic of what I’m even talking about..


live by the 3 die by the 3 implies that a team is good at shooting the 3, the key factor in them Winning is shooting the 3 well, and when they do not shoot the 3 well they lose. My point is that isn’t the case for this team and how we play on defense is far more important to whether we win or lose. Like it or hate it we run a very effective offensive system.

I get that you dislike oats and think his system sucks and hate the direction of the program and all that but this thread is about the false sentiment that Bama has to kill it from 3 to win games

I address that in my first post. Live by the 3, die by the 3 isn't so much about hitting a high percentage as it is about the number of 3s taken during a game. Your 10-5 record you alluded to is a bit skewed when wins came against South Alabama, Oakland, Drake, and Jacksonville St. Add in wins against above average Vandy and Miss St. and that's 6 of the 10 you are talking about. You might as well had thrown Memphis in there as Bama shot exactly 30% from 3 in that loss.

Alabama lost to a very shitty UGA team because they were too stupid to realize that the 3 wasn't falling. They hit 26% from 3 in a game where they took more 3s (34 to 28) than 2s. But here is the crazy part, they hit 65% of the 2s they took. Logic would tell you had they taken more 2 and less 3s they win that game. Not only that, but the FT margin might have been closer as UGA outshot Bama 30-20 from the FT line.

You're last sentence if logic fallacy at it's finest. I don't dislike Oats nor the basis of his system. I dislike the fact he is too stubborn to make any kind of adjustments to his system for the betterment of the team he is coaching. The best thing I heard them say about Coach K during a game is that in an interview Coach K said he pay attention to analytics, but he pay closer attention to his players and the feel for the game.

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

I address that in my first post. Live by the 3, die by the 3 isn't so much about hitting a high percentage as it is about the number of 3s taken during a game. Your 10-5 record you alluded to is a bit skewed when wins came against South Alabama, Oakland, Drake, and Jacksonville St. Add in wins against above average Vandy and Miss St. and that's 6 of the 10 you are talking about. You might as well had thrown Memphis in there as Bama shot exactly 30% from 3 in that loss.

Alabama lost to a very shitty UGA team because they were too stupid to realize that the 3 wasn't falling. They hit 26% from 3 in a game where they took more 3s (34 to 28) than 2s. But here is the crazy part, they hit 65% of the 2s they took. Logic would tell you had they taken more 2 and less 3s they win that game. Not only that, but the FT margin might have been closer as UGA outshot Bama 30-20 from the FT line.

You're last sentence if logic fallacy at it's finest. I don't dislike Oats nor the basis of his system. I dislike the fact he is too stubborn to make any kind of adjustments to his system for the betterment of the team he is coaching. The best thing I heard them say about Coach K during a game is that in an interview Coach K said he pay attention to analytics, but he pay closer attention to his players and the feel for the game.

It’s semantics to discuss what the phrase means. Do we have to make a high percentage of threes to win games? That’s all I’m talking about. I don’t disagree with everything you say. My point, defense wins and loses us games. What we do on offense matters but has not been the key factor in winning or losing outside of maybe 2 games on each side

 

[G.O.A.T-23]

It’s semantics to discuss what the phrase means. Do we have to make a high percentage of threes to win games? That’s all I’m talking about. I don’t disagree with everything you say. My point, defense wins and loses us games. What we do on offense matters but has not been the key factor in winning or losing outside of maybe 2 games on each side

If you are going to be shooting anywhere between 30-40 threes like Bama has on many occasions, you need to hit a decent percentage to beat quality teams. Wins against the Oakland and Vandy of the world doesn't withstanding...

 

[BeastofBourbon]

I can agree to an extent… but now we’re a little off topic of what I’m even talking about..


live by the 3 die by the 3 implies that a team is good at shooting the 3, the key factor in them Winning is shooting the 3 well, and when they do not shoot the 3 well they lose. My point is that isn’t the case for this team and how we play on defense is far more important to whether we win or lose. Like it or hate it we run a very effective offensive system.

I get that you dislike oats and think his system sucks and hate the direction of the program and all that but this thread is about the false sentiment that Bama has to kill it from 3 to win games

But is it an effective offense when all it does is accentuate your weaknesses on defense? Who cares if you score 76 to 80 points in a game if you still lose? If our 2 pt % is better this year than last, and our 3 pt % is worse, it would seem obvious that if we convert some of those 3 pt attempts to 2's some of those games we lost with scores like 85-80, we might win 75-72.

How do we do this? Guys like Gary and Rojas should absolutely never be allowed to shoot a 3.

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

If you are going to be shooting anywhere between 30-40 threes like Bama has on many occasions, you need to hit a decent percentage to beat quality teams. Wins against the Oakland and Vandy of the world doesn't withstanding...

I will be off work in a little bit and return to talk more shit.

 

[G.O.A.T-23]

I will be off work in a little bit and return to talk more shit.

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

WACHOVIA BITCH

 

[pfaud001]

But is it an effective offense when all it does is accentuate your weaknesses on defense? Who cares if you score 76 to 80 points in a game if you still lose? If our 2 pt % is better this year than last, and our 3 pt % is worse, it would seem obvious that if we convert some of those 3 pt attempts to 2's some of those games we lost with scores like 85-80, we might win 75-72.

How do we do this? Guys like Gary and Rojas should absolutely never be allowed to shoot a 3.

I agree to a point. Rojas has made a couple of huge 3s, but I cringe every time he takes one.