Live by the three, die by the three

[pfaud001]

Simply not the case for this team. I see it and hear it non stop about this team and it is a lazy narrative.

We are 31% on the season from 3. That’s not a good percentage. Poor shooting has cost us maybe 2 games, and great shooting won us maybe 2 games, the other 24 games we were like a hooker, live by the D, die by the D.

in our 10 losses, we average 83.2 points allowed as opposed to 72 ppg in our 18 wins.

We have shot above our season average 12 times this season. We are 8-4 in those games.

We have shot above 35% 8 times all season, we are 5-3 in those games.

we have shot below 30% 15 times, we are 10-5 in those games.

The point, our shooting has had little correlation with the outcome of the game. It is all about defense. This team has only shot over 40% from 3 twice all season, against Miami and Ole Miss. a team that “lives by the 3, dies by the 3” means they win when they light it up from 3(above 40%) and lose when they don’t(below 35%). We basically never shoot well enough from 3 to ever LIVE by the 3

The key to our offensive success, we have actually been a good free throw team and do a solid job getting to the line(not spectacular), we are really good around the rim and getting good looks at the rim, and we are a great offensive rebounding team with nearly 12 per game which is 8th in the country.

Basically….stop saying it’s all about making threes for this team. It’s simply not the case

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

But is it an effective offense when all it does is accentuate your weaknesses on defense? Who cares if you score 76 to 80 points in a game if you still lose? If our 2 pt % is better this year than last, and our 3 pt % is worse, it would seem obvious that if we convert some of those 3 pt attempts to 2's some of those games we lost with scores like 85-80, we might win 75-72.

How do we do this? Guys like Gary and Rojas should absolutely never be allowed to shoot a 3.

Ok I actually 100% agree about Rojas and Gary shooting 3s. Hell even oats agrees on that.

but where are we getting this idea that our offense makes us worse on defense? I must be missing all the transition layups off missed threes we are giving up… that’s kind of something y’all pulled out of thin air… Our breakdowns on defense almost always are a result of getting beat off the dribble in half court.

 

[OatsMeal]

We could run a lineup out last year where everyone was 6’5” or taller. We do not have a long guard this year other than Keon at 6’6” and he is a 3(and by far our best defender). Everyone else is 6’3” or less. I hate to harp on it but Primo and Burnetts length would have been very helpful and no I’m not blaming anything on them leaving just saying… I think Oats wants long guards and in his defense he thought he had a few

I will continue to beat this point like a dead horse. This team was expected to have Primo and Nimari Burnett as key contributors. It is a huge difference without those two.

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

If you are going to be shooting anywhere between 30-40 threes like Bama has on many occasions, you need to hit a decent percentage to beat quality teams. Wins against the Oakland and Vandy of the world doesn't withstanding...

Ok so I’m just going to look at games against the top 10 teams on our schedule. Kentucky twice and Auburn twice make up 4 of the 10. Side note, all damn 10 are in the top 19 of kenpom. Insane

we are 6-4 in those 10 games.
We average 8.6 - 29.5 from 3, 29%

in the 6 wins, we are 8/27.8, 28.7%

in the 4 losses, we are 9.5/32, 29.6%

in the 6 wins, we allowed 74 points per game

in the 4 losses we allowed 83 points per game

We shot over that 29% from 3 in 5 of those games, we were 3-2 in those games.

We shot well from 3(35+%) in 3 of those games, we were 1-2 in those games.

 

[G.O.A.T-23]

Ok so I’m just going to look at games against the top 10 teams on our schedule. Kentucky twice and Auburn twice make up 4 of the 10. Side note, all damn 10 are in the top 19 of kenpom. Insane

we are 6-4 in those 10 games.
We average 8.6 - 29.5 from 3, 29%

in the 6 wins, we are 8/27.8, 28.7%

in the 4 losses, we are 9.5/32, 29.6%

in the 6 wins, we allowed 74 points per game

in the 4 losses we allowed 83 points per game

We shot over that 29% from 3 in 5 of those games, we were 3-2 in those games.

We shot well from 3(35+%) in 3 of those games, we were 1-2 in those games.

Assuming we have the same top 10 teams: UK -2, Auburn -2, Zags -1, Houston -1, Baylor -1, Arkansas -1, LSU -1, UT -1. We know UK and Auburn are the 2 Ls so I guess we can look at the Ws.

Zags, Bama shot the ball well from 3. Nearly 40%.

Houston was the same, nearly 40% but Bama only shot 18 total 3s which is right in the area I think they should be in. They made 52% of their FG thanks to the fact they didn't throw up a shit ton of bricks from 3. They even shot 31 FTs in that game.

Tennessee they shot the ball shitty from 3 but for some reason UT decided to play Bama's game in they shot 29 threes themselves, making only 25%.

Bama was able to beat a shorthanded LSU team by 3 points largely do to the fact that Bama made more FTs (21) than LSU even attempted (15). If memory serves me right, Bama was up 13 with about 6 mins to go in the game and LSU came back and tied it in less than 3 minutes due to the fact Bama kept throwing up brick after brick from 3. They damn near died by the 3 that night.

Baylor they shot 33% from three but most importantly, they shot only 21 threes while hitting a remarkable 79% from 2. Also had 26ft attempts to boot.

Good win against Arkansas despite shooting 24% from 3 while shooting more 3s than 2s. However from 2 they hit 63% and could have won more comfortably had that shot more 2s than those bricks from 3s.

Ultimately what skews your argument is that in a couple game, Baylor and Houston both wins, Bama shot the amount of 3s I feel like they should be at 21 and 18 respectively. In the ones they lost to Auburn and UK they shot 31, 37, 30, and 40. Hitting a putrid 38/138.

Bottom line, they shoot way too many threes for a team that isn't a good three point shooting team and that is why they are just a likely to get bounced in the opening round of the NCAA Tourney as they are to win. They live by the 3, they die by the 3...

 

[D Isaiah T Billings-Clyde7]

Assuming we have the same top 10 teams: UK -2, Auburn -2, Zags -1, Houston -1, Baylor -1, Arkansas -1, LSU -1, UT -1. We know UK and Auburn are the 2 Ls so I guess we can look at the Ws.

Zags, Bama shot the ball well from 3. Nearly 40%.

Houston was the same, nearly 40% but Bama only shot 18 total 3s which is right in the area I think they should be in. They made 52% of their FG thanks to the fact they didn't throw up a shit ton of bricks from 3. They even shot 31 FTs in that game.

Tennessee they shot the ball shitty from 3 but for some reason UT decided to play Bama's game in they shot 29 threes themselves, making only 25%.

Bama was able to beat a shorthanded LSU team by 3 points largely do to the fact that Bama made more FTs (21) than LSU even attempted (15). If memory serves me right, Bama was up 13 with about 6 mins to go in the game and LSU came back and tied it in less than 3 minutes due to the fact Bama kept throwing up brick after brick from 3. They damn near died by the 3 that night.

Baylor they shot 33% from three but most importantly, they shot only 21 threes while hitting a remarkable 79% from 2. Also had 26ft attempts to boot.

Good win against Arkansas despite shooting 24% from 3 while shooting more 3s than 2s. However from 2 they hit 63% and could have won more comfortably had that shot more 2s than those bricks from 3s.

Ultimately what skews your argument is that in a couple game, Baylor and Houston both wins, Bama shot the amount of 3s I feel like they should be at 21 and 18 respectively. In the ones they lost to Auburn and UK they shot 31, 37, 30, and 40. Hitting a putrid 38/138.

Bottom line, they shoot way too many threes for a team that isn't a good three point shooting team and that is why they are just a likely to get bounced in the opening round of the NCAA Tourney as they are to win. They live by the 3, they die by the 3...

So what role does our defense play in wins and losses?

 

[G.O.A.T-23]

So what role does our defense play in wins and losses?

It plays a role, of course. This year's team is not nearly as good defensively as last year's team. I think Petty was an underrated defender and Herb was an eraser for Bama.

How often did we see Herb take a charge after Shaq or JQ man beat them off the dribble?

So yes the lack of defense at times plays a role in the lack of success. I just feel the “live by the 3, die by the 3” play a more significant role than you do.

 

[frazor]

I must be missing all the transition layups off missed threes we are giving up… that’s kind of something y’all pulled out of thin air…

Yeah I don't recall a terrible amount of these occuring either. Not saying that they don't occur and perhaps I am just so use to runouts from turnovers.

 

[BeastofBourbon]

So what role does our defense play in wins and losses?

IMO defense is the bigger issue than the piss poor 3 point shooting. I believe in 8 of our losses we scored 76 or more points (in 3 of those we scored over 80). Bottom line if you score 76 or more points in a game you should win.

Now to GOATs point, us chucking up 3 pointers does contribute to our defense due to easy runouts and fast break opportunities. You're right though, it's not been a glaring issue, but I think it's safe to say that it contributes to at least 6 points per game that we give up. So instead of losing to Miss St 78-76, we likely win that game 74-72. Maybe we beat AU at home instead of losing by 4.

 

[BamaLegacy]

Simply not the case for this team. I see it and hear it non stop about this team and it is a lazy narrative.

We are 31% on the season from 3. That’s not a good percentage. Poor shooting has cost us maybe 2 games, and great shooting won us maybe 2 games, the other 24 games we were like a hooker, live by the D, die by the D.

in our 10 losses, we average 83.2 points allowed as opposed to 72 ppg in our 18 wins.

We have shot above our season average 12 times this season. We are 8-4 in those games.

We have shot above 35% 8 times all season, we are 5-3 in those games.

we have shot below 30% 15 times, we are 10-5 in those games.

The point, our shooting has had little correlation with the outcome of the game. It is all about defense. This team has only shot over 40% from 3 twice all season, against Miami and Ole Miss. a team that “lives by the 3, dies by the 3” means they win when they light it up from 3(above 40%) and lose when they don’t(below 35%). We basically never shoot well enough from 3 to ever LIVE by the 3

The key to our offensive success, we have actually been a good free throw team and do a solid job getting to the line(not spectacular), we are really good around the rim and getting good looks at the rim, and we are a great offensive rebounding team with nearly 12 per game which is 8th in the country.

Basically….stop saying it’s all about making threes for this team. It’s simply not the case

Appreciate the work to look up the stats…generally shooting % is the most impactful on winning by about 2 to 1 over any other stat, so the D stat is really interesting and at this point in the season it would be hard to say it is just random variation.

#RTR #LetsPlaySomeDefense