Mean Deaths in the 2 Apr Projection for Alabama = 5,516
In the 5 Apr projections of the model = 923
Difference = - 4,593
U.S. Mean Deaths in the 2 Apr Projection = 93,531
In the 5 Apr projections of the model = 81,766
Difference = - 11,765
Percentage national drop in mean deaths due to correction for Alabama = 39%
Projected Peak Deaths:
U.S. Average = 16 APR
Alabama = 22 APR
The mean deaths in Alabama dropped by 83.3% in four days. That's no tweak. I'm suspicious that someone at IHME purposely exaggerated the Alabama data for the 2 Apr. run of the model and I'd like to know why.
It caused unnecessary panic in this state.
MEAN DEATHS IN ALABAMA Date/Daily/Cumulative
25-Mar /1 /1
26-Mar /0 /1
27-Mar /3 /4
28-Mar /0/4
29-Mar /6 /10
30-Mar /0 /10
31-Mar /13 /23
1-Apr /4/27
2-Apr /5/32
3-Apr /6 /38
4-Apr /19/57
5-Apr /16 /73
6-Apr /16/89
7-Apr /18/107
8-Apr /21/128
9-Apr /22/150
10-Apr /23/173
11-Apr /26/199
12-Apr /29/228
13-Apr /30/258
14-Apr /34/292
15-Apr /34/326
16-Apr /36/362
17-Apr /41/403
18-Apr /40/443
19-Apr /41/484
20-Apr /42/526
21-Apr /40/566
22-Apr /43/609 Projected peak in mean deaths
23-Apr /40/649
24-Apr /35/684
25-Apr /41/725
26-Apr /31/756
27-Apr /29/785
28-Apr /25/810
29-Apr /24/834
30-Apr /18/852
1-May /17/869
2-May /13/882
3-May /10/892
4-May /8/900
5-May /6/906
6-May /5/911
7-May /3/914
8-May /3/917
9-May /2/919
10-May /1/920
11-May /1/921
12-May /1/922
13-May /0/922
If this projection holds true, I'm guessing most everyone returns to work on either Monday, 4 May or 11 May with social distancing requirements still in effect.
In the 5 Apr projections of the model = 923
Difference = - 4,593
U.S. Mean Deaths in the 2 Apr Projection = 93,531
In the 5 Apr projections of the model = 81,766
Difference = - 11,765
Percentage national drop in mean deaths due to correction for Alabama = 39%
Projected Peak Deaths:
U.S. Average = 16 APR
Alabama = 22 APR
The mean deaths in Alabama dropped by 83.3% in four days. That's no tweak. I'm suspicious that someone at IHME purposely exaggerated the Alabama data for the 2 Apr. run of the model and I'd like to know why.
It caused unnecessary panic in this state.
MEAN DEATHS IN ALABAMA Date/Daily/Cumulative
25-Mar /1 /1
26-Mar /0 /1
27-Mar /3 /4
28-Mar /0/4
29-Mar /6 /10
30-Mar /0 /10
31-Mar /13 /23
1-Apr /4/27
2-Apr /5/32
3-Apr /6 /38
4-Apr /19/57
5-Apr /16 /73
6-Apr /16/89
7-Apr /18/107
8-Apr /21/128
9-Apr /22/150
10-Apr /23/173
11-Apr /26/199
12-Apr /29/228
13-Apr /30/258
14-Apr /34/292
15-Apr /34/326
16-Apr /36/362
17-Apr /41/403
18-Apr /40/443
19-Apr /41/484
20-Apr /42/526
21-Apr /40/566
22-Apr /43/609 Projected peak in mean deaths
23-Apr /40/649
24-Apr /35/684
25-Apr /41/725
26-Apr /31/756
27-Apr /29/785
28-Apr /25/810
29-Apr /24/834
30-Apr /18/852
1-May /17/869
2-May /13/882
3-May /10/892
4-May /8/900
5-May /6/906
6-May /5/911
7-May /3/914
8-May /3/917
9-May /2/919
10-May /1/920
11-May /1/921
12-May /1/922
13-May /0/922
If this projection holds true, I'm guessing most everyone returns to work on either Monday, 4 May or 11 May with social distancing requirements still in effect.
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