Football 🏈 Tony's takes: How a three-loss Alabama might still limp into the playoff

Tony_Tsoukalas · Sunday at 7:58 AM

Tony's takes: How a three-loss Alabama might still limp into the playoff

Here's a look at Alabama's unlikely path to the College Football Playoff

alabama.rivals.com

I told myself I wasn’t going to write this. I told other people last night I wouldn’t write this. I’m a worse person for writing this. And frankly, you’re probably a worse person for reading it.

Sometimes it’s best to put the dying pet out of its misery. Like a 12-year-old retriever, Alabama has its good days. Jalen Milroe was moving well when he helped the Crimson Tide fetch what seemed like a signature win at LSU earlier this month. The Tide’s defense even cut down on its accidents and stopped wetting itself on third downs for a few games. But after watching Alabama whimper against another team with a strong pass rush and a capable ground game on Saturday night, it seems cruel to imagine the Tide having to suffer the same fate again in the College Football Playoff.

Still, here we are.

A suffering Alabama flashed its puppy eyes, and this wild new world of college football’s expanded playoff might provide the medicine to keep the Tide kicking a few more weeks.

So here it is, Alabama fans, the column you didn’t ask for, don’t need and probably should ignore. Today we’re taking a look at how the Tide could somehow limp into the playoff with three losses. With that, pour yourself a big glass of hope, and perhaps something a bit stronger, and let’s dive in.

Step one — The committee doesn’t completely tank Alabama

Heather Dinich is to blame for this cursed column. She’s the one who projected Alabama (8-3, 4-3 in the SEC) to slot in at No. 12 in the upcoming College Football Playoff rankings set to be revealed Tuesday evening.

Before we get too in the weeds over hypotheticals, it’s worth pointing out that none of these next what-ifs matter if the committee elects to drop the Tide like a lead balloon. Even in Dinich’s current projection, Alabama would need some help in order to mae the playoff. The Tide’s projected No. 12 record wouldn’t mean a No. 12 seed, as it would get bumped by the Big 12 winner, who would be guaranteed a spot in the field due to being the fifth-highest conference champion.

That being said, you can go ahead and kiss any Alabama playoff hopes goodbye if the committee sinks the Tide below Ole Miss (8-3, 4-3) or South Carolina (8-3, 5-3), who Dinich projects at No. 13 and No. 14 respectively.

Step two — Alabama beats Auburn

Here’s the lone controllable on the list, and it’s far from a guarantee at the moment. Auburn is fresh of of knocking off No. 15 Texas A&M in four overtimes and will now be playing for bowl eligibility when it travels to Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Iron Bowl was already going to be the Tigers’ Super Bowl, but now it has the potential of transforming Hugh Freeze’s momentum on the Plains.

Over his last three games, Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne has completed 66.3% of his passes for 826 yards and eight touchdowns with just one interception. Meanwhile, Tigers running back Jarquez Hunter has piled up 560 yards and five touchdowns on the ground over his last four outings.

That’s bad news for an Alabama defense that struggled to get off the field against a depleted Oklahoma offense Saturday night. Auburn also ranks No. 24 in total defense, allowing opponents just 319.3 yards per game. Make no mistake, the Tigers are no juggernaut, but neither was the banged-up Oklahoma team that dominated the Tide on Saturday night.

Step three — Texas beats Texas A&M

Alabama will be rooting for chaos across the nation next week. However, when it comes to the SEC’s marquee matchup, the Tide needs No. 3 Texas to avoid an upset in College Station.

With just one loss, No. 3 Texas (10-1, 6-1) will likely remain above Alabama regardless of its outcome against Texas A&M (8-3, 5-2). On the other hand, the Aggies would likely jump the Tide with a win over the Longhorns but would be completely eliminated from playoff contention with a loss.

Step four — Syracuse beats Miami

For Alabama to have any chance of making the playoff, it will need the committee to weigh resume over win-loss record.

Should Miami suffer an upset at Syracuse, the Hurricanes would miss out on a chance to play in the ACC Championship Game and finish the regular season at 10-2. Even with an extra loss, Alabama’s hypothetical resume at 9-3 would be stronger than Miami’s. The committee currently has the Tide ranked above the Hurricanes despite having an additional loss, so it’s conceivable that Alabama would jump Miami again in this scenario.

Step five — South Carolina beats Clemson

Next up, Alabama would have to hope that head-to-head still holds plenty of weight in the committee’s criteria. The Tide’s 27-25 victory over currently-ranked No. 18 South Carolina could be huge, especially if the Gamecocks can take down No. 17 Clemson on the road next Saturday.

That outcome paired with an Alabama win over Auburn would leave Alabama, Clemson and South Carolina all at 9-3. The Tide would then have the head-to-head advantage over the Gamecocks, potentially trumping them when it comes to playoff contention.

Step six — SMU beats Clemson in ACC Championship Game

Even with its hypothetical loss to South Carolina, Clemson would still make the ACC Championship Game if Syracuse upset Miami. If that were the case, Alabama would need SMU to win the ACC title to avoid a three-loss Clemson team stealing a playoff spot with an automatic bid.

SMU will be a heavy favorite over California in its final regular-season game next weekend. Assuming the Mustangs win that, Alabama would have virtually no chance of passing them, even if they fell to Clemson and finished at 11-2.

Step seven — Texas beats Georgia in SEC Championship Game

This isn’t necessarily essential to Alabama’s playoff path, but it would certainly help. In this scenario, Texas would move to 12-1, while Georgia would fall to 10-3.

It’s unlikely the committee would drop Georgia below Alabama despite the Tide’s 41-34 victory over the Bulldogs earlier this season. However, a Georgia loss would create more chaos and potentially ease the waters on the committee’s view on admitting three-loss teams in the playoff.

Drink of the week — Apples to Apples

At this point, there’s no telling which version of Alabama shows up for next weekend’s Iron Bowl. Be honest, do you feel confident about Nick Sheridan’s ability to draw up an attack against a top-20 run defense without an extra week to prepare for it? How about Kane Wommack’s attempt to stop the SEC’s second-leading running back?

Me neither.

For Tide fans looking for a way to take beating the Tigers into their own hands, our friends at Session Cocktails are using their Apples to Apples cocktail to fuel a competition between their Auburn and Tuscaloosa locations. The best part is, a portion of proceeds from the drink purchases will go toward the Boys & Girls Club.

Competition aside, the Apples to Apples is a perfect fall cocktail. The drink is comprised of 2 ounces of vodka, 2 ounces of apple cider, ¾ ounces of lemon juice and ¾ ounces cane syrup. While it's pretty simple to stir up at home, it's worth stopping by Session on your way to the game this weekend to secure a much-needed victory for the Tide.

Cheers!

bamanut25 · Sunday at 8:18 AM