ESPN's College Basketball Power Index

[MobileBama]

Right now ESPN's College Basketball Power Index has us going 16.6-12.4 and 9.1-8.9 in conference. Only a 3.7% chance of winning the conference. This thing changes daily but interesting early take.

2023-24 %{view} Men's College Basketball Power Index - ESPN

View the 2023-24 %{view} Men's College Basketball power index on ESPN. The BPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.

www.espn.com

The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily.

 

[frazor]

I'd buy that. 3.7% isn't offensive when you look at how narrowly last year's team won the SEC. It took until the last week of the regular season (if memory serves) for a 16-2 team to win the conference and it took an amazing victory against LSU to clinch the tournament. Wouldn't be surprised to only have 17-18 wins at the end of the season but no #1 or #2 seed is going to be pleased with seeing us as a 7-10 in their bracket. FWIW I think Bama will do slightly better in their tournament seeding assuming they can remain injury free.

 

[StablerCountry]

Well, I think this is a 20 win team. I think they are going to win some games that apparently this power index does not think they will win.

 

[frazor]

Well, I think this is a 20 win team. I think they are going to win some games that apparently this power index does not think they will win.

Let's say they get 2 wins in the holiday tournament and they take care of Jax St and Colorado St. That gives them 8 wins
Where are the other 12 coming from? Not saying you're wrong, just curious. 12-10 would be pretty good.

@(1) Gonzaga
(12) Houston
(9) Memphis
(15) Tennessee
(23) Florida
Missouri
(19) Auburn
Mississippi St.
LSU
Missouri
Georgia
(6) Baylor
(19) Auburn
(10) Kentucky
Mississippi
(13) Arkansas
Mississippi St.
(10) Kentucky
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
Texas A&M
@LSU

 

[StablerCountry]

Tough schedule any way you look at it. I think Bama beats some of the teams not favored too and plays better than expected. I think they develop into a top 16 team.

 

[rsaxoniii]

I'm not sure if we're ready for the competition we're about to play but we're about to find out!

I do think we will be after a few sec games. Injury free..top 3 sec and a NCAA tournamenta force to be reckoned with.

 

[pwestbro61]

Toughest basketball schedule maybe ever. Gonna take some lumps.

 

[Codie B]

Toughest basketball schedule maybe ever. Gonna take some lumps.

I agree. I can’t ever recall a BB schedule that we have had that is projected to be this tough. The toughest OOC schedule I can ever remember, and SEC BB has improved in the last few years.

 

[Sweetlou2.0]

Toughest basketball schedule maybe ever. Gonna take some lumps.

I agree... And what really makes it tough is that all the midmajors he scheduled are also very good. I'm pleasantly surprised we're sitting 4-0 right now. Fully expected to lose one of those tough early games like we normally do.

 

[BamaLegacy]

IMO it all depends on how Bama shoots this year.

Bama was a juggernaut last season when making shots and I would expect the same this season, but we may have shot a bit above our head last season, particularly in SEC play, and could be due for a bit of regression.

I expected Gurley to be an improvement over Reese and so far he really hasn’t been. Thankfully Bediako has been significantly better than I expected and has provided an inside presence we haven’t had in while and that has saved Bama at times.

Bama badly needs Q to get back in a groove from outside to keep from leaning too hard on Shack and Ellis. If Miles can keep it up too (his shooting clearly surprised CNO which is telling) then Bama probably has enough to be dangerous against anyone on the right night. If Gurley can round into form as well and get above 33-35% from outside then Bama will be a final 4 threat.

5 consistent shooters, a plus athlete in Davison, with Bediako and Gary providing an inside punch is strong. 2-3 shooters with B/G inside is still good, but probably isn’t going to threaten the elite teams most nights.