Story Tony's takes: Three predictions following the House vs NCAA settlement
- Champions Lounge
- 4 Replies
Amateurism in athletics is on its deathbed, but a eulogy isn’t needed for your favorite college sports.
Don’t believe the doomsdayers.
You are still going to tune into College GameDay every Saturday morning in the fall — maybe even more so now that Nick Saban will be part of ESPN’s coverage team. Alabama fans will still pack Bryant-Denny Stadium and dole out ridiculous sums of money for soft pretzels inside Coleman Coliseum. They’ll still call into local sports-talk radio stations and argue with rival fans, who will also flock to their favorite team’s stadium where they’ll pay over the odds for the processed snack of their choosing.
College sports aren’t going anywhere — at least not the ones most of y’all are worried about. They’ll just operate a bit differently. And while revenue sharing is sure to make the college sports purists a bit salty, they’ll still tune in all the same. After all, if coughing up $13.99 for a pretzel hasn’t stopped you from showing up, neither will your favorite team paying its players.
That doesn’t mean the recent settlement in the House v. NCAA case won’t open a can of worms. College sports aren’t dying, but there are bound to be a few major changes in store.
In today’s column, I’ll discuss that while providing a few predictions on what may be in store for the new pay-for-play landscape. With that said, pour yourself a drink, and let's dive in.
For this one, you’ll need 1.5 ounces of Jamaican rum, three-fourths of an ounce of sloe gin, three-fourths of an ounce of apricot liqueur and three-fourths of an ounce of lime juice. From there, shake the ingredients over ice, strain into a chilled coupe glass and garnish with a lime.
The sweetness of the rum and apricot liquor pair nicely with the tartness of the sloe gin and lime juice, forming a rich concoction fit for its namesake. It’s the perfect drink to help you forget that an 18-year-old quarterback is making more in one season than you’ll pull in over your lifetime.
Cheers!
(Commercial break: My drink of the week section is now sponsored by my friends at Session Cocktails in Tuscaloosa. Session has been a mainstay in Tuscaloosa’s cocktail scene since 2019 and offers some of the tastiest drinks in town. Stop by and tell them I said hi!)
Last week, the NCAA and its power conferences all voted on a settlement that will allow schools to directly pay players. While there are still a few legal details to iron out, schools are expected to be able to extend roughly $20 million per year across all of their athletic programs beginning in the fall of 2025.
Exactly how that money will be distributed as well as the effect it will have on college athletics remains to be seen. For now, here are a few predictions of what to expect moving forward.
The transfer portal will lose its luster
The transfer portal won’t cease to exist, but it likely won’t hold the same role in roster construction. Alabama football brought in 13 college transfers (plus the readdition of Kadyn Proctor) this offseason but also saw 30 scholarship players depart for the portal. Chances are, both of those totals will decrease now that schools will be able to sign players to multi-year contracts.
According to Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger, some of those contracts could involve buyout clauses similar to what we see from head coaches. Still, any sort of a binding deal will give colleges more leverage than they currently have. This should also prevent double transfers in the same offseason, such as the situation we saw with Proctor, where the five-star lineman left Alabama for Iowa in January only to return three months later.
Currently, it’s difficult for teams to maintain depth, as departing players grow tired of waiting for their turn on the field while incoming transfers are generally pushing for some form of guaranteed playing time. Now teams will be able to pay for patience from their rising stars, leaving fewer holes to plug from season to season.
Locking young players into multi-year deals will also allow more time for coaches to mold them into their system. That should shift more emphasis back to high school recruiting.
Walk-ons will cease to exist
As far as the future generations are concerned, the movie Rudy might as well have been set in the Stone Age. The idea of walk-ons will be as outdated as the Wishbone offense and leather helmets under the new setup.
Scholarship limits hold little meaning now that teams will be able to pay players directly. To combat that, the Power Four conferences are expected to allow unlimited scholarships while instead putting a cap on overall roster size. Early suggestions estimate that number will drop down to 85 or 90 moving forward.
Currently, teams are only allotted 85 football scholarships but are allowed unlimited walk-ons. That at least opens the door for an underdog story where an unheralded player earns his spot on the field while paying his own way.
If teams are required to limit their rosters to let’s say 90 players, it’s likely most will elect to pay a little extra to accumulate more top-end talents, leaving the underdogs out in the cold.
Smaller sports will be cut
You might have missed it, but Alabama added another national champion on Saturday, as Filip Planinsek took home the men’s tennis singles title. Planinsek is the first Crimson Tide tennis player to take home a singles crown in school history. Unfortunately, he may be the last.
Smaller sports such as tennis, swimming and track and field could fall to the wayside as schools could be forced to devote their revenue to money-making programs such as the football and basketball teams.
There already figures to be complications with Title IX, as many have questioned whether or not potential lawsuits will be filed if revenue is not split somewhat evenly between men’s and women’s sports. Perhaps that ensures the future of gymnastics, softball, volleyball, women’s soccer and women’s basketball. However, cuts wil likely have to be made in order to ensure Alabama remains competitive on both the gridiron and the hardwood.
According to a report from The Athletic, one CEO of a college collective estimated that roughly 80 percent of their school’s projected $14.5 million in NIL earnings would be devoted to football this year. It’s safe to assume most men’s basketball programs will also take on a substantial slice of the pie, considering the numbers that get thrown around for top transfer targets.
Rutgers transfer Clifford Omoruyi reportedly turned down a NIL offer worth $2 million to join Alabama basketball this offseason. That’s roughly the cost of an entire sport on one player, and those prices are only set to rise now that schools can bring their own revenue to the negotiating table.
Teams will still have NIL collectives, which will help circumvent the salary cap by raising money through outside sources. That could theoretically boost budgets to more than $30 million. Still, it’s hard to imagine that extra money not going toward what figures to be an arms race in college athletics’ biggest two sports.
If Alabama is forced to choose between funding a cross-country team or having the ability to add the missing piece to a championship roster in either football or basketball, don’t be surprised if it opts for the latter. That’ll be true for almost every major program.
*****
Are you a displaced corporate executive or want to put your career in your own hands? Or are you an experienced entrepreneur wanting to diversify? Well, Andy Luedecke can help.
Andy is a longtime Rival board member, diehard college football fan and franchise veteran. He owns multiple franchises and businesses and uses his expertise to help others find their American Dream through a very thorough and FREE consultation process.
Call Andy, and put your life and career in your own hands. 100% free, so what do you have to lose?!!
Find Your Perfect Franchise at MyPerfectFranchise.Net
Contact Andy Luedecke anytime at:
andy@myperfectfranchise.net
(404) 973-9901
www.myperfectfranchise.net
Don’t believe the doomsdayers.
You are still going to tune into College GameDay every Saturday morning in the fall — maybe even more so now that Nick Saban will be part of ESPN’s coverage team. Alabama fans will still pack Bryant-Denny Stadium and dole out ridiculous sums of money for soft pretzels inside Coleman Coliseum. They’ll still call into local sports-talk radio stations and argue with rival fans, who will also flock to their favorite team’s stadium where they’ll pay over the odds for the processed snack of their choosing.
College sports aren’t going anywhere — at least not the ones most of y’all are worried about. They’ll just operate a bit differently. And while revenue sharing is sure to make the college sports purists a bit salty, they’ll still tune in all the same. After all, if coughing up $13.99 for a pretzel hasn’t stopped you from showing up, neither will your favorite team paying its players.
That doesn’t mean the recent settlement in the House v. NCAA case won’t open a can of worms. College sports aren’t dying, but there are bound to be a few major changes in store.
In today’s column, I’ll discuss that while providing a few predictions on what may be in store for the new pay-for-play landscape. With that said, pour yourself a drink, and let's dive in.
Drink of the week — Millionaire
This drink is fitting in more than just name. Like the current state of college athletics, the Millionaire involves its own bit of debate and uncertainty. Some claim the Prohibition-era cocktail is made with Jamaican rum, while others center it around bourbon or gin. Each version offers an elegant blend of sweet and sour, but we’re siding with our friends at Session, who prefer the rum route.For this one, you’ll need 1.5 ounces of Jamaican rum, three-fourths of an ounce of sloe gin, three-fourths of an ounce of apricot liqueur and three-fourths of an ounce of lime juice. From there, shake the ingredients over ice, strain into a chilled coupe glass and garnish with a lime.
The sweetness of the rum and apricot liquor pair nicely with the tartness of the sloe gin and lime juice, forming a rich concoction fit for its namesake. It’s the perfect drink to help you forget that an 18-year-old quarterback is making more in one season than you’ll pull in over your lifetime.
Cheers!
(Commercial break: My drink of the week section is now sponsored by my friends at Session Cocktails in Tuscaloosa. Session has been a mainstay in Tuscaloosa’s cocktail scene since 2019 and offers some of the tastiest drinks in town. Stop by and tell them I said hi!)
Three predictions following the House vs NCAA settlementLast week, the NCAA and its power conferences all voted on a settlement that will allow schools to directly pay players. While there are still a few legal details to iron out, schools are expected to be able to extend roughly $20 million per year across all of their athletic programs beginning in the fall of 2025.
Exactly how that money will be distributed as well as the effect it will have on college athletics remains to be seen. For now, here are a few predictions of what to expect moving forward.
The transfer portal will lose its luster
The transfer portal won’t cease to exist, but it likely won’t hold the same role in roster construction. Alabama football brought in 13 college transfers (plus the readdition of Kadyn Proctor) this offseason but also saw 30 scholarship players depart for the portal. Chances are, both of those totals will decrease now that schools will be able to sign players to multi-year contracts.
According to Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger, some of those contracts could involve buyout clauses similar to what we see from head coaches. Still, any sort of a binding deal will give colleges more leverage than they currently have. This should also prevent double transfers in the same offseason, such as the situation we saw with Proctor, where the five-star lineman left Alabama for Iowa in January only to return three months later.
Currently, it’s difficult for teams to maintain depth, as departing players grow tired of waiting for their turn on the field while incoming transfers are generally pushing for some form of guaranteed playing time. Now teams will be able to pay for patience from their rising stars, leaving fewer holes to plug from season to season.
Locking young players into multi-year deals will also allow more time for coaches to mold them into their system. That should shift more emphasis back to high school recruiting.
Walk-ons will cease to exist
As far as the future generations are concerned, the movie Rudy might as well have been set in the Stone Age. The idea of walk-ons will be as outdated as the Wishbone offense and leather helmets under the new setup.
Scholarship limits hold little meaning now that teams will be able to pay players directly. To combat that, the Power Four conferences are expected to allow unlimited scholarships while instead putting a cap on overall roster size. Early suggestions estimate that number will drop down to 85 or 90 moving forward.
Currently, teams are only allotted 85 football scholarships but are allowed unlimited walk-ons. That at least opens the door for an underdog story where an unheralded player earns his spot on the field while paying his own way.
If teams are required to limit their rosters to let’s say 90 players, it’s likely most will elect to pay a little extra to accumulate more top-end talents, leaving the underdogs out in the cold.
Smaller sports will be cut
You might have missed it, but Alabama added another national champion on Saturday, as Filip Planinsek took home the men’s tennis singles title. Planinsek is the first Crimson Tide tennis player to take home a singles crown in school history. Unfortunately, he may be the last.
Smaller sports such as tennis, swimming and track and field could fall to the wayside as schools could be forced to devote their revenue to money-making programs such as the football and basketball teams.
There already figures to be complications with Title IX, as many have questioned whether or not potential lawsuits will be filed if revenue is not split somewhat evenly between men’s and women’s sports. Perhaps that ensures the future of gymnastics, softball, volleyball, women’s soccer and women’s basketball. However, cuts wil likely have to be made in order to ensure Alabama remains competitive on both the gridiron and the hardwood.
According to a report from The Athletic, one CEO of a college collective estimated that roughly 80 percent of their school’s projected $14.5 million in NIL earnings would be devoted to football this year. It’s safe to assume most men’s basketball programs will also take on a substantial slice of the pie, considering the numbers that get thrown around for top transfer targets.
Rutgers transfer Clifford Omoruyi reportedly turned down a NIL offer worth $2 million to join Alabama basketball this offseason. That’s roughly the cost of an entire sport on one player, and those prices are only set to rise now that schools can bring their own revenue to the negotiating table.
Teams will still have NIL collectives, which will help circumvent the salary cap by raising money through outside sources. That could theoretically boost budgets to more than $30 million. Still, it’s hard to imagine that extra money not going toward what figures to be an arms race in college athletics’ biggest two sports.
If Alabama is forced to choose between funding a cross-country team or having the ability to add the missing piece to a championship roster in either football or basketball, don’t be surprised if it opts for the latter. That’ll be true for almost every major program.
*****
Are you a displaced corporate executive or want to put your career in your own hands? Or are you an experienced entrepreneur wanting to diversify? Well, Andy Luedecke can help.
Andy is a longtime Rival board member, diehard college football fan and franchise veteran. He owns multiple franchises and businesses and uses his expertise to help others find their American Dream through a very thorough and FREE consultation process.
Call Andy, and put your life and career in your own hands. 100% free, so what do you have to lose?!!
Find Your Perfect Franchise at MyPerfectFranchise.Net
Contact Andy Luedecke anytime at:
andy@myperfectfranchise.net
(404) 973-9901
www.myperfectfranchise.net
Oh where oh where is pussbrook?
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- Champions Lounge
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I have laughed all day at this clown. Go do what you do best!
RTR ladies. Amazing series. Go win it all!
RTR ladies. Amazing series. Go win it all!
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Saturday, Carter will finalize his move to the South as he’s set to fly into Tuscaloosa to report to Alabama. The Peoria, Arizona native is one of eight freshman summer arrivals who will join the team over the next few days. Before making the trip, he spoke with Tide Illustrated to discuss the beginning of his college career.
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