For the record, Oats doesn’t care if they take open mid range. It’s just not an analytically good shot, which it’s not, but he doesn’t care if they take it.
Baseball ⚾️ Amazing how the two best teams in CBB utilizes the mid-range shot
- Thread starter G.O.A.T-23
- Start date
A
anon_z8qxv7qt5719f
Guest
I think both of those teams just have better shooters and ball handlers than us and it doesn't matter if they shoot a 3, Mid-range, or lay-up. I also think they have a better basketball IQ on Offense.
All sports are increasingly being driven by analytics. Especially basketball. It is all about getting the most possible expected value from each possession. For instance if you're a 40% 3 point shooting team and you only took 3's you would get over the course of a game 1.2 points per possession. That same output would need 60% from 2's. Not one team in the country shoots 60% on midrange shots. Some might at the rim. So it is all about getting the best possible shot at all times. And I'm sure there are times where the mid range shot is a better shot for us. But Oats and the analytics guys want it to become habit that if you have the ball 15 feet from the goal and you're wide open that usually means you have an open lane to go get a higher percentage shot.
Saying Sweet 16 is our ceiling if we continue to play like this feels like recency bias. Regular season ended and we were ranked #5 in the country and ran into a team with a horseshoe shoved up their butt. If we make even an average number of free throws we beat them and have a good chance to have a shot at Gonzaga in the Final 4. I have a buddy who in December told me our CEILING was top 40. Well Oats did an incredible job of squeezing every ounce of talent out of this group if that is the case with this system. I don't think anyone would say we underachieved this year based on our talent. We just had a bad night. And in college basketball, you can't have a bad night in late March. The system we are running gives us the best chance to win every night and gives us the best recruiting pitch to get guys who want to run the same offense that is run in the NBA.
Saying Sweet 16 is our ceiling if we continue to play like this feels like recency bias. Regular season ended and we were ranked #5 in the country and ran into a team with a horseshoe shoved up their butt. If we make even an average number of free throws we beat them and have a good chance to have a shot at Gonzaga in the Final 4. I have a buddy who in December told me our CEILING was top 40. Well Oats did an incredible job of squeezing every ounce of talent out of this group if that is the case with this system. I don't think anyone would say we underachieved this year based on our talent. We just had a bad night. And in college basketball, you can't have a bad night in late March. The system we are running gives us the best chance to win every night and gives us the best recruiting pitch to get guys who want to run the same offense that is run in the NBA.
While I agree with a good amount of what you said I disagree that the majority of this team could get penetration. Shack, Q, and Jones were the only 3 players to warrant significant minutes who could routinely get past their guy. Miles and Primos were a step down and then everybody else. We'll see how this team looks in 2 more years. I really started caring about basketball roughly 20 years ago and the majority of that time has been spent as "first four out." I have enjoyed this year and look forward to many more sweetsixteens.
A
anon_z8qxv7qt5719f
Guest
I really think: 1. We overachieved this year with the personnel that we have, especially since we were picked to finish in the middle of the SEC (The Blue Bloods had a down year in the conference also). In a sense, we were overrated. 2. We have maybe 2 good ball-handlers on the team, while the elite teams have players that can all handle the ball well. 3. Despite what we may think CAJ didn't leave a lot in cupboard as far as talent with high Basketball IQ. 4. This is just the beginning.
A
anon_z8qxv7qt5719f
Guest
Players are made in the Summer, and Teams in the Winter when it comes to basketball. I hope we can get some good development this off-season.
While we're at it, can Alabama go back to utilizing the fullback out of the I-Formation? So many things can go wrong with a pass.
A
anon_z8qxv7qt5719f
Guest
Take a look [WILL NOT WORK ON PHONE] at ESPN shot charts for UCLA game... mess around with shots made/missed and you can also adjust by players
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay/_/gameId/401310873
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay/_/gameId/401310873
A
anon_z8qxv7qt5719f
Guest
They look about the same with the exception of the 4 MR shots they made. Look at how many they missed and the number we missed! Free Throws beat us.
What happened to all the other teams that shoot the mid range a bunch? They were all sitting at the house just like the teams that shoot the 3 more! Those 2 teams last night are just better from top to bottom of their lineups. Oats Has also stated he's not against the mid range shot.
A
anon_z8qxv7qt5719f
Guest
I wonder where we would've finished if CNO would not have been able to coax Shack and JQ to join the team? Exactly!
If have the ability to hit from 3, you have the ability to make the closer, easier shot that is the midrange shot. I am not talking about taking a bunch of contested midrange; I'm talking about the open ones teams give Bama because the play them to shot the 3 or drive it all the way.
How many contested 3 do Bama miss a game? I don't know about you but it seems like a shit ton against quality teams. Reese has a nice stroke on his shot and he's 6’9. Yet he kept throwing up 3s despite the fact he only shot 25% from there.
How many times did Petty drive in just a little too far and get the ball stolen? How many contested layups did Herb miss?
How easy would it be to stop and pop? How harder would this team be to defend if Oats flash a player to the top of the key to hitt a midrange shot now and then.
Nova won a NC shooting more 3s than most teams, but if you watched them, they also hit a lot of midrange shots because it was open for them to take the way teams tried to guard the 3.
It's my opinion that you can't win a NC or make it to a Final Four with a philosophy that completely ignores one part of the game.
Didn’t read the rest of your post outside of the first paragraph because that first part is just not true in many cases. But please continue with your flawed line of thinking.
Tell that to Baylor and the Zags. Tell that to GS who everyone just assumed led the NBA every year in 3 pointers taken because of Steph, Clay, and Durant. They actually led the league in... wait for it.... MIDRANGE SHOTS.
If you have good shooters, which Bama does, why would you not tell them to take the open shot instead of taking it into 2 defenders waiting on you at the basket?
I'm not saying pass up an open 3 or open dunk for the midrange. Just place an emphasis on taking the smart shot and maybe work a few plays in there that will cause the defense to defend the entire half-court.
Have you ever played basketball? You think it is easier to take the further away shot? But my thinking is flawed...
Come on Harper, they got hot from 3 at the right time and beat some teams that probably shouldn't have. Had Bama got hot like there were in January, they would have gone further but you are depending on your team getting ridiculously hot to make a run.
Bama ranked 264 out of 347 teams when it came to % at the rim. I think it's a fatal flaw to all but omit the midrange.
A
anon_z8qxv7qt5719f
Guest
I don't know the stats, but of the "mid-range" shots we took this year how many did we make? Do we have "Good/Consistent" shooters? I need to see the numbers.
So you have more confidence in them to make a 3 pointer than a 16’ shot? Think you’re saying we had no talent. And you’re not wrong. So it was impressive what was accomplished.
However, the point is not whether anyone has confidence in them to make shots, it’s about making defending us way to easy for the opponent. Imagine playing a football team with an offense that will only pass to the sidelines. Would they not not be much easier to defend? Of course they would. Just as Bama is much easier to defend because they refuse to take a shot from 4 feet to 19 feet from the basket.
Personally, I’d have a lot more confidence in one our guys making a shot from 8 feet than from 20+.
Not aimed at you but the people saying “you think you know more than the coach”, etc., is so dumb. Some coaches are actually not too bright. If they were so smart why did it take them so many decades to start applying math to the game?
There are dumb people in all professions and using the ole “I’ll trust the coach over some fan” approach, while often true, would negate the need for this and other forums. Tony and anyone else working here only have this particular job because we debate and share info.
I personally like the midrange jumper (since I could hit it) but I don’t think CNO’s philosophy kept us from going farther. As has been said concerning football coaching: It’s not the Xs and the Os but the Jimmies and the Joes, particularly ones who can hit free throws. I also note that one of CNO’s critics in this thread is the guy who in December said that CNO is nothing but a high school coach and that if we needed one of those we should have gone with Bucky. The same guy seems to have missed few opportunities to criticize CNO since then.
Well until Oats decides he wants to change things up, possibly with improved talent, it is what it is. I read an article a few months ago discussing shot % in the NBA. At roughly 10-12' away it is a 40% shot. Every distance after that, all the way out to the 3 point line, fluctuated in the 33-36% range. So 40 attempts at 10' away yields 32 points. Shooting 40 attempts from 3 at 33% yields 39.6 points. Oh and Bama shot 35% on the season. In that Buffalo interview that somebody shared Sunday (1-3-1?) He talks about fluidity of play and his lack of sets. How is Shack or Q suppose to get to the rim with Rojas or Reese flashing into the open space at 15 feet?
A
anon_z8qxv7qt5719f
Guest
Bingo! He runs an offense and not plays. Sets take away from the fluidity of offense.
Not when we have quality bigs. And dont turn the ball over 15 times. Hard to look at this past years team and find a loss where you really thought the other team was better. We lost when we turned the ball over, and shot less than 50% from the free throw line. Strongly disagree with you
Like I replied to GOAT what game did we lose where we were the lesser team? And didnt turn the ball over 15+ times or shoot less than 50% from the free throw line. Quality bigs will fix what you guys are talking about that and Oats is getting them. As much as Herb and Petty helped us get there they really hurt us talent wise. Yea Herb plays lock down D but hes done on offense with a good and long defender. Petty has zero handles and is really only good for us if hes open or gets hot. Just too inconsistent. Dribbling turnover machine. Reese was a liability on defense. Yea we had depth at the 1-3 positions but not really at the 4 and 5. Oats recruiting will give us options.
Not all bad points, although I think I disagree about Herb and Petty hurting us from
A talent perspective. But, I’m
Not sure what that has to do with whether or not an open 15 footer is better than a contested layup.
A mid range jump shot can work when you have players with the talent and athleticism of a Gonzaga or a Baylor. Alabama did not have that kind of talent.
Who on Alabama’s 2020-2021 basketball team should’ve been shooting more mid range js? Give me a name. Would we have beaten UCLA with more mid range jump shots ? I’m confused.
Our system will adjust to the talent level. If we can keep recruiting at this level, we will be loaded with players who will have more freedom in the offense than what we’re used to
Who on Alabama’s 2020-2021 basketball team should’ve been shooting more mid range js? Give me a name. Would we have beaten UCLA with more mid range jump shots ? I’m confused.
Our system will adjust to the talent level. If we can keep recruiting at this level, we will be loaded with players who will have more freedom in the offense than what we’re used to
How many midrange jumpers did Baylor take? And how many did they make?
How many midrange jumpers did Gonzaga take? And how many did they make?
Midrange Jumpers/Shots
Gonzaga 5 for 8
Baylor 8 for 22
How many midrange jumpers did Gonzaga take? And how many did they make?
Midrange Jumpers/Shots
Gonzaga 5 for 8
Baylor 8 for 22
A
anon_z8qxv7qt5719f
Guest
So what sense does it make to have them shot a further away, lower percentage shot? If that is your argument that Alabama players sucks so much that they are unable to hit an uncontested midrange shot, why are we having them shot contested 3s?
To me what makes the difference with these teams; was the ability of multiple guys that could truly handle the ball(Baylor specifically)/their ability to Finish at the rim on consistent basis.
I agree 100%. When something is this correct it needs to be said. Even if it is a basketball forum.
All shots at the rim aren’t good ones. We took plenty of highly contested layups. When we put it in the floor, the defender can just run to the rim bc there is zero chance we are pulling up and shooting mid range.
The question is, is an open 12 footer better than a highly contested layup? I think so, unless the player is an elite finisher. But it’s clear, Oats doesn’t want the mid range shot.
